婷婷六月激情在线综合激情,国产高清一级毛片在线人,日韩美女一级视频,99久久亚洲国产高清观看,成人小视频网,国产精品一区二区三区四区

  • 全國

交易商正在押注一個不斷緊縮的全球柴油市場

   2023-08-29 互聯網綜合消息

152

核心提示:中間餾分油和柴油期貨的價格在最近幾周大幅上漲,超過了布倫特油價的漲幅在美國,包括柴油在內的餾分油庫存

中間餾分油和柴油期貨的價格在最近幾周大幅上漲,超過了布倫特油價的漲幅

在美國,包括柴油在內的餾分油庫存已低于正常水平

由于原油和燃料油供應趨緊,煉油利潤率在最近幾周也有所提高

據油價網2023年8月22日報道,盡管美國和歐洲經濟放緩,強勁反彈也不盡如人意,但全球柴油市場供應依然緊張,并將以低于平均水平的庫存進入收割和采暖季節。

最近幾周,中間餾分油和柴油期貨價格大幅上漲,超過了布倫特原油價格的漲幅。布倫特原油價格已從此前的每桶75美元—80美元區間升至80美元—85美元區間。

在美國和歐洲中間餾分油庫存處于季節性低位之際,投資組合經理和投機者越來越多地押注柴油價格上漲,而這通常是發生在供暖季之前庫存增加的時候。

柴油庫存雖然沒有去年同期那么低,但仍遠低于歷史平均水平,這表明煉油廠停產、需求強于預期或冬季變冷導致的供應減少,可能會使餾分油市場進一步陷入短缺,推高價格,并再次對商品走勢和通脹構成壓力。

柴油庫存低于正常水平

在美國,包括柴油在內的餾分油庫存已低于正常水平。

美國能源信息署(EIA)上周在其備受關注的最新每周石油庫存報告表示,在8月11日當周,美國餾分油庫存增加30萬桶。目前美國餾分油庫存比5年同期平均水平低16%左右。EIA數據顯示,餾分油需求低于去年同期,但近幾周美國餾分油總產量也呈下降趨勢。

分析師表示,在歐洲,阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特衛普(ARA)石油交易中心獨立持有的柴油類庫存看起來也相當緊張。

咨詢公司FGE周五在一份報告中稱,全球范圍內,除亞洲以外的所有地區上周都增加了中間餾分油庫存,盡管現貨溢價過高阻礙了庫存的增加。

FGE表示:“盡管近幾周庫存基本呈橫盤走勢,但每周的跌幅越來越低于一年中同期的歷史區間,這給已經很高的中間餾分油價格帶來了上行壓力。”

荷蘭國際集團(ING)策略師帕特森和曼塞特周一在一份報告中寫道:“市場似乎擔心的是,中東地區的輕油庫存看起來仍然相當緊張,而隨著冬季的臨近,我們還沒有開始看到庫存增加。”

看漲資金押注柴油價格上升

由于庫存下降,對沖基金今年夏天越來越看好餾分油。荷蘭國際集團援引的交易所數據顯示,上周歐洲洲際交易所(ICE)汽油凈多頭頭寸(看漲與看跌頭寸之差)增加5703手,至93941手。這是自去年3月以來歐洲最大的輕油期貨凈多頭頭寸。

在大西洋彼岸,紐約港交割的超低硫柴油凈多頭頭寸在8月初也觸及18個月高點。

分析人士預計,美國和歐洲的柴油市場將供不應求。

咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲的煉油和成品油市場研究分析師豪舍姆告訴彭博社記者:“在我們目前的預測中,歐洲柴油/輕油供應的前景是緊張的,原因是輕質原油的柴油/輕油產量預期較低且轉向航空燃料產量,以及計劃外的煉油廠停產。”

豪舍姆補充說:“預計到11月份,柴油需求將逐月增長。”

煉油利潤猛增

由于原油和燃料油供應趨緊,近幾周煉油利潤率也有所上升,原因是歐佩克+聯盟和沙特阿拉伯將大部分中等含硫原油從市場上扣留,導致餾分油產量下降,中等含硫原油是加工成柴油的理想選擇。

國際能源署(IEA)在其8月份月度報告中稱,預計8月份全球煉油日產能將達到8390萬桶的夏季峰值,比5月份日增240萬桶,比去年同期日增260萬桶。

“成品油產量的增加未能緩解成品油市場的緊張,將汽油和中間餾分油的裂解利潤推至接近歷史高位。”IEA表示。

IEA指出,汽油和柴油市場的吃緊已將煉油利潤率推到6個月高位。

“額外的重質含硫原油供應將使煉油商能夠提振煉油活動,并有助于緩解成品油市場的緊張局勢。但如果該集團維持目前的目標,石油庫存可能會在今年第三季度日減220萬桶,在第四季度日減120萬桶,這可能會推高油價。”

由于經合組織經濟體的柴油庫存低于5年平均水平,美國經濟軟著陸,歐洲沒有出現重大經濟衰退,而經濟表現不佳區域的復蘇,可能為今年晚些時候的另一輪柴油牛市奠定基礎。 

李峻 譯自 油價網

原文如下:

Traders Are Betting On A Tightening Global Diesel Market

·     The prices of middle distillates and diesel futures have jumped in recent weeks, outpacing the increase in Brent crude oil prices.

·     Distillate stocks, which include diesel, are lower than normal in the United States.

·     Reflecting tighter supply of crude and fuels, refining margins have also strengthened in recent weeks.

Despite the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe and a failed strong rebound in China, the diesel market globally is tight and set to enter the crop and heating seasons with lower-than-average inventories.  

The prices of middle distillates and diesel futures have jumped in recent weeks, outpacing the increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have moved into the $80-85 a barrel bandwidth from the previous range of $75-80. 

Portfolio managers and speculators are increasingly betting on higher diesel prices amid seasonally low inventories of middle distillates in the United States and Europe, at a time when stocks typically build ahead of the heating season. 

Diesel inventories are not as low as they were at this time last year, but they are still well below historical averages, suggesting that reduced supply due to refinery outages, stronger-than-expected demand, or a colder winter could tip the distillate market further into deficit, stoking up prices and weighing – again – on the movement of goods and inflation. 

Lower-Than-Usual Diesel Stocks

Distillate stocks, which include diesel, are lower than normal in the United States. 

In the week ending August 11, distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. increased by 300,000 barrels, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest closely-watched weekly petroleum inventory report last week. Distillate fuel stocks are currently around 16% below the five-year average for this time of the year. Distillate demand has been lower than at this time last year, but total U.S. distillate production has also trended lower in recent weeks, EIA data show. 

In Europe, diesel-type inventories independently-held at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub are also looking quite tight, analysts say. 

Globally, middle distillate stocks built last week in all regions apart from ARA, despite steep backwardation discouraging stockbuilding, consultancy FGE said in a note on Friday.  

“Although stocks have been moving largely sideways in recent weeks, they are falling increasingly below the historical range for the time of year each week, putting upwards pressure on already high middle distillate cracks,” FGE said. 

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Monday, 

“The market appears to be concerned about the fact that ARA gasoil inventories are still looking quite tight and we are yet to start seeing a build in inventories as we edge closer towards the start of winter.”  

Bullish Bets On Diesel Rise 

As a result of lower inventories, hedge funds have been increasingly bullish on distillates this summer. The net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – on ICE gasoil in Europe rose by 5,703 lots to 93,941 lots last week, per exchange data cited by ING. This was the biggest net long position on gasoil futures in Europe since March 2022.

Across the Atlantic, the net long position on ultra-low sulfur diesel delivered in New York Harbor, ULSD NY NYMEX, also hit the highest in 18 months earlier in August. 

Analysts expect a tight diesel market ahead in the U.S. and Europe. 

“The outlook for Europe diesel/gasoil supply is tight in our current forecast, driven by the lower diesel/gasoil yields expected from lighter crude slates, the shift to jet yields, and unplanned refinery outages,” Emma Howsham, a research analyst for refining and oil product markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told Bloomberg.

“Demand is expected to increase month-on-month to November,” Howsham added. 

Refining Margins Jump 

Reflecting tighter supply of crude and fuels, refining margins have also strengthened in recent weeks, due to lower distillate yields as OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia are withholding mostly medium sour crude grades from the market, which are ideal for processing into diesel.  

Global refinery throughputs are expected to reach a summer peak of 83.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up by 2.4 million bpd since May and 2.6 million bpd higher than a year ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report for August. 

“The increase in refined product output has failed to ease product market tightness, pushing gasoline and middle distillate cracks to near record-highs,” IEA said. 

Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs, the agency noted. 

“Additional supplies of heavy sour crude would allow refiners to boost activity and help ease product market tensions. But if the bloc’s current targets are maintained, oil inventories could draw by 2.2 mb/d in 3Q23 and 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter, with a risk of driving prices still higher.” 

With diesel inventories in OECD economies below five-year averages, a soft landing of the U.S. economy, no major recessions in Europe, and a recovery in the underwhelming area's economic performance could set the stage for another diesel bull run later this year.  



免責聲明:本網轉載自其它媒體的文章及圖片,目的在于弘揚石化精神,傳遞更多石化信息,宣傳國家石化產業政策,展示國家石化產業形象,參與國際石化產業輿論競爭,提高國際石化產業話語權,并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責,在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以崇高敬意。如果您認為本站文章及圖片侵犯了您的版權,請與我們聯系,我們將第一時間刪除。
 
 
更多>同類資訊
  • china
  • 沒有留下簽名~~
推薦圖文
推薦資訊
點擊排行
網站首頁  |  關于我們  |  聯系方式  |  使用說明  |  隱私政策  |  免責聲明  |  網站地圖  |   |  工信部粵ICP備05102027號

粵公網安備 44040202001354號

 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 99精品国产免费久久久久久下载 | 岛国搬运工一区二区免费 | 免费看片免费播放国产 | 免费v片在线看 | 精品福利一区二区免费视频 | 狠狠干天天爱 | 青青草色久综合网 | 激情综合色综合啪啪开心 | 成人黄色片在线观看 | 青草视频在线观看免费 | 免费永久视频 | 久久久夜 | 欧美色爱综合网 | 你懂的国产精品 | 国产99在线视频 | 欧美日韩另类在线观看视频 | 日韩欧美在线精品 | 精品国产中文一级毛片在线看 | www.奇米影视.com | 久久99精品久久久久久园产越南 | 精品一区国产 | 日韩免费不卡视频 | 无限资源免费观看高清在线播放 | 精品成人毛片一区二区视 | 99视频精品| 国产日韩欧美成人 | 亚洲婷婷综合色高清在线 | 国产女人综合久久精品视 | 奇米777网 | bt男人天堂 | 五月婷婷婷婷婷 | 国产欧美va欧美va香蕉在 | 成人激情四射网 | 国产成人精视频在线观看免费 | 成人在线精品视频 | 五月花激情 | 欧美精品在线播放 | 毛片免费网 | 久久99综合国产精品亚洲首页 | 男人天堂网2020 | 欧美a在线视频 |