據彭博新聞社2023年7月13日報道,由于原油供應中斷令現貨市場收緊,全球基準原油布倫特原油價格當天報收于11周高位。
加拿大帝國商業銀行私人財管部門高級能源交易員麗貝卡·巴賓表示:“由于市場最近從供應過剩轉為供應不足,這一事件正獲得更多關注。”“宏觀背景有所改善,使得每一桶原油都變得很重要。”
原油價格最近突破了100日移動均線等關鍵技術位,突破了兩個月來一直處于的窄幅交易區間。目前,交易商正密切關注原油期貨是否會突破200日移動均線——布倫特原油每桶約82.50美元,西得克薩斯中質原油約為每桶約77.30美元——這可能引發更多買盤。
美國通脹走軟也支撐了大宗商品價格。通脹走軟促使人們對美聯儲(FED)的加息周期可能即將結束感到樂觀。
盡管IEA表示,由于發達國家經濟步履蹣跚,今年全球石油需求增長速度不會像此前預期那么快,但IEA仍預計今年全球石油需求將創歷史新高。在另一份報告中,歐佩克預計明年全球石油市場將更加緊張,歐佩克預計需求增長數值將比其他主要預測機構大得多。
盡管交易商繼續關注西方經濟衰退的跡象——即便是在美國經濟前景好轉之際——同時等待經濟復蘇提速,原油價格今年仍在下跌。歐佩克+產油大國正在減產以支撐市場。主打產品烏拉爾原油價格突破了七國集團設定的價格上限。
價格:
西得克薩斯中質原油8月期貨上漲1.14美元,至每桶76.89美元。
布倫特原油9月結算價上漲1.25美元,報收于每桶81.36美元。
李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社
原文如下:
Supply Outages Drive Oil Prices to 11 Week High
Global benchmark Brent settled at an 11-week high as supply outages tightened the physical market.
Libya’s second-biggest oil field is in the process of shutting amid protests there. The outage of the roughly 250,000 barrel-a-day Sharara field follows disruptions at the country’s El Feel area and Nigeria’s Forcados oil terminal.
“This event is garnering heightened attention as the market has recently inflected from a surplus to a deficit,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “The macro backdrop has improved, making every barrel important.”
Prices recently pierced key technical levels such as the 100-day moving average, breaking out of the tight trading range they’ve been stuck in for two months after. Now traders are keeping a close watch on whether futures will cross above their 200-day moving averages — around $82.50 for Brent and $77.30 for WTI — which could trigger more buying.
Softening US inflation, which has prompted some optimism that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, is also supporting the commodity.
While the International Energy Agency said global oil demand won’t grow as fast as previously expected this year due to the faltering economies of developed nations, the agency still sees record demand this year. In a separate report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted an even tighter global oil market next year, as the group anticipates a much bigger demand increase than other major forecasters.
Crude is nevertheless down this year as traders continue to watch for signs of recession in the west — even amid the improving US outlook — while waiting for the recovery to pick up. OPEC+ heavyweights are removing barrels to prop up the market,its flagship Urals crude has breached a price cap set by the Group of Seven, a possible economic win for Moscow.
Prices:
WTI for August delivery settled $1.14 higher to $76.89 a barrel.
Brent for September settlement rose $1.25 to close at $81.36 a barrel.
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