據美國彭博新聞社2022年1月12日報道，由于頁巖生產商繼續提高產量，美國明年的石油產量將創下歷史新高。

根據美國能源信息署(EIA)公布的統計數據，到2023年，美國石油供應將平均每天1241萬桶。 EIA在其月度短期能源展望報告中表示，這將超過2019年創下的目前每天1230萬桶的年度高點。 EIA還將今年的產量預期下調至每日1180萬桶。

EIA表示，從去年最后一個季度開始，美國石油產量預計將連續9個季度增長。 2019年底，美國石油產量達到月度峰值，幾個月后，疫情爆發撼動了石油市場，迫使美國石油生產商削減產量。 自那以來，油價回升了50%以上，但主要產油國一直擔心供應恢復過快，將月度數據保持在疫情前的高點以下。

EIA在月度報告中表示：“相對較高的原油價格應該會為增產提供充足的資金。”EIA預計，今年第4季度美國石油日產量將超過1200萬桶。 美國基準原油期貨價格今年開局強勁，自去年底以來每桶已上漲了5個多美元。  

EIA還預計，今年全球石油日供應量將升至創紀錄的1.0105億桶。 這一數字高于去年12月預測的1.0093億。 EIA預計，到2023年，全球石油日產量將進一步上升至1.028億桶。  

EIA在報告中稱，今年全球石油日消費量將達到1.0052億桶，高于此前估計的1.0046億桶。 預計到2023年，全球石油日消費量將躍升至1.023億桶。  

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下：

EIA expects shale to drive record U.S. oil production in 2023

U.S. annual oil production is set to rise to a record next year as shale producers continue to boost output.  

Oil supply will average 12.41 million barrels a day in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration. That would surpass the current annual high of 12.3 million barrels a day set in 2019, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The agency also lowered its production estimate for this year to 11.8 million barrels a day.

The projected rise in U.S. output would represent nine consecutive quarters of growth, beginning the last three months of 2021, the EIA said. U.S. crude production reached a monthly peak in late 2019, months before the pandemic jolted global markets and forced producers to slash output. Since then oil prices have recovered by more than 50% but major producers have been wary of bringing back supplies too quickly, keeping monthly figures below pre-pandemic highs.

“Relatively high crude oil prices should result in an ample availability of funding to support the production increase,” the EIA said in the monthly report. The agency sees domestic output surpassing 12 million barrels a day from the fourth quarter of this year. Benchmark U.S. crude futures prices have been off to a strong start to the year, adding over $5 a barrel since 2021 ended.

The agency also sees global petroleum supply rising to a record this year of 101.05 million barrels a day. That’s an upward revision from last month’s forecast of 100.93 million. The EIA expects global production will rise further to 102.8 million barrels a day in 2023.

Global consumption is set to reach 100.52 million barrels a day this year from its previous estimate of 100.46 million, according to the report. Consumption is expected to jump to 102.3 million barrels a day in 2023.

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