據(jù)海上工程師網(wǎng)2021年12月29日報道，美國達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行周三（12月29日）公布的一項最新調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，美國油氣行業(yè)高管預(yù)計，由于油價攀升，明年美國油氣產(chǎn)量和鉆井活動將增加，但他們也表示，屆時成本也將大幅上升。  

約49%的受訪企業(yè)高管表示，他們計劃明年擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)量，15%的受訪者表示，他們的主要目標(biāo)是維持現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)量水平，13%的受訪者計劃重點削減債務(wù)。 6個月前景依然樂觀，但這個指數(shù)已從上一季度的58.9降至53.2。 

達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行說，“上市石油公司的高管曾表示，他們主要計劃明年保持產(chǎn)量持平或以較低的個位數(shù)增幅擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)量，并將重點放在提高股東回報上”。

美國油價周三上漲1.2%，至每桶76.88美元左右。 自今年年初以來，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)從冠狀病毒疫情大流行中復(fù)蘇，對石油和汽車燃料的需求反彈，油價上漲了近60%。 

調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，服務(wù)業(yè)投入成本指數(shù)創(chuàng)下歷史新高，從上季度的60.8升至69.8。 油服公司報告稱，第四季度成本上升，租賃運營費用從第二季度的29.4躍升至42，也是達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行5年前開始這項調(diào)查以來的最高水平。

“不斷加劇的供應(yīng)鏈中斷和相關(guān)的通貨膨脹有可能推遲和影響2022年完井鉆井活動。” 其他高管則表示，明年很難找到高素質(zhì)的鉆井工人。  

受訪者平均預(yù)期明年12月油價將達(dá)到每桶75美元，亨利中心的天然氣價格將降至每百萬英熱單位(MMBtu) 4.06美元，兩者均接近當(dāng)前價格。 

在一個特殊問題中，95%的受訪者表示，他們預(yù)計各國不會兌現(xiàn)2030年減少溫室氣體排放的承諾。  

許多高管還說，政府能源政策的不確定性使計劃實施變得困難。 

12月的調(diào)查對得克薩斯州、新墨西哥州南部和路易斯安那州北部134家能源公司的高管進(jìn)行了調(diào)查，其中90家來自勘探和生產(chǎn)公司，44家來自油田服務(wù)公司。  

李峻 編譯自 海上工程師網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Firms Predict Rising Output, But Warn of Higher Costs

U.S. oil and gas executives are predicting higher production and drilling activity next year as oil prices climb, but say they face sharply higher costs, according to a poll released on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Some 49% of executives surveyed said they aim to expand output next year, while 15% said their main focus would be to maintain existing production levels and 13% plan to focus on reducing debt. Six-month outlooks remained positive, but the index declined to 53.2 from 58.9 the previous quarter.

Executives of publicly traded oil companies have said they largely plan to keep production flat or expand output at low single-digit percentage rates next year and focus on improving shareholder returns.

U.S. oil prices were up 1.2% on Wednesday at around $76.88 a barrel. They are up almost 60% since the start of the year, as demand for oil and motor fuels rebounds on an economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The index for input costs among service firms hit a record high in the survey, rising to 69.8 from 60.8 last quarter. Oilfield service firms reported higher costs during the fourth quarter, and lease operating expenses jumped to 42 from 29.4 during the quarter, also the highest reading since the Federal Reserve began the survey five years ago.

Rising supply-chain disruption and associated inflation have the potential to delay and impact drilling and completion activity in 2022," one executive commented. Others said it has been difficult to find highly qualified workers.

Survey respondents on average anticipate oil prices to be at $75 a barrel next December, and Henry Hub natural gas prices to land at $4.06 per million British thermal unit (MMBtu), both close to current pricing.

In a section of special questions, 95% of respondents said they did not expect countries to meet their 2030 commitments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Many executives also said that uncertainty over the Administration's energy policies has made planning difficult.

December's survey polled executives at 134 energy firms in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana, of which 90 were from exploration and production companies and 44 were from oilfield service firms.

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