據世界石油網站12月13日報道 歐佩克大幅提高了對明年第一季度全球石油需求的預測，因為病毒奧密克戎將推遲今年的部分復蘇，但新病毒株的總體風險仍然有限。 

根據歐佩克研究部門的一份月度報告，該組織將這一時期的消費量估計每天增加110萬桶，相當于疫情前一年的世界消費量年增長率。 

報告稱：“新的奧密克戎變種的影響預計是溫和的和短暫的，因為全球應對新冠疫情的能力逐漸增強。” 

這一預測調整意味著，歐佩克及其盟國在1月份繼續恢復石油生產的計劃時，不會產生如此巨大的盈余。本月早些時候做出增加生產的決定令交易員感到意外，因為市場仍然較為脆弱，這被廣泛解讀為沙特阿拉伯對美國的政治善意姿態。 

盡管如此，油價仍基本持穩，倫敦原油交易價格接近每桶75美元，因為初步跡象顯示，需求尚未受到最新病毒爆發的影響。歐佩克在技術會議上決定不增產，如果需要的話，在短時間內扭轉供應增加的趨勢，這也支撐了市場情緒。 

周一報告中對需求前景的調整類似于歐佩克+咨詢委員會在部長們做出決定前召開的會議。 

該報告第一季度對需求的提振被第二和第三季度的評級下調所抵消。因此，2022年需求增長420萬桶/日的全年預測沒有變化。 

即使有了這一變化，如果歐佩克+繼續恢復疫情期間停止的生產，它也有可能在2022年初造成新的供應過剩。 

該集團估計，第一季度平均每天需要提供2789萬桶石油，不過報告顯示，該集團13個成員國11月份的產量為2770萬桶。本月和下個月計劃的供應增加將使該集團的產出高到足以使全球庫存再次增加。 

然而，該組織的官員表示，他們對這一結果感到滿意，因為該集團的供應限制導致庫存耗盡。報告顯示，發達國家10月份的庫存比五年平均水平低2.07億桶。 

王磊 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC increases global oil demand forecast for Q1 2022

OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand in the first quarter substantially, as some of this year’s recovery is delayed by Omicron but the overall risk from the new virus strain remains limited.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted estimates for consumption in the period by 1.1 million barrels a day -- equivalent to annual world consumption growth in a typical year before the pandemic -- according to a monthly report from the group’s research department.

“The impact of the new Omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges,” the report said.

The revision means that OPEC and its allies won’t create as big a surplus when they proceed with plans to continue reviving oil production in January. The decision to add barrels, taken earlier this month, surprised traders because markets remain so fragile. It was widely interpreted as a gesture of political goodwill from Saudi Arabia to the U.S.

Oil prices have nonetheless largely held up, with crude trading near $75 a barrel in London, as initial signs show that demand hasn’t yet suffered from the latest virus outbreak. OPEC’s decision to technically keep its meeting in session -- leaving the door open to reversing the supply increase at short notice if needed -- is also shoring up sentiment.

The adjustments to the demand outlook in the report on Monday resemble those taken by an OPEC+ advisory committee that met the evening before ministers made their decision.

The report’s boost to demand in the first quarter is offset by downgrades to the second and third quarters. As a result, there was no change to the full-year forecast for demand growth of 4.2 million barrels a day in 2022.

Even with the change, OPEC+ is likely to cause a new oversupply in early 2022 if it continues to restore production halted during the pandemic.

The group estimates it will need to provide an average of 27.89 million barrels a day during the first quarter, though the report shows that production from its 13 members was 27.7 million in November. Supply increases scheduled this month and next will leave the group’s output high enough to make global inventories increase again.

However, officials from the organization have indicated they’re comfortable with this outcome, given that the group’s supply restraint has left stocks depleted. Inventories in developed nations were 207 million barrels below their five-year average in October, according to the report.

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