據(jù)彭博新聞社2021年8月12日?qǐng)?bào)道,由于疫情復(fù)蘇沖擊了主要消費(fèi)國,國際能源署(IEA)“大幅”下調(diào)了今年剩余時(shí)間的全球石油需求預(yù)期,并預(yù)計(jì)2022年將出現(xiàn)新的石油需求過剩。
對(duì)于總部位于巴黎的IEA來說,這是一個(gè)明顯的逆轉(zhuǎn)。就在一個(gè)月前,該機(jī)構(gòu)還敦促歐佩克+聯(lián)盟打開閥門增加供應(yīng),否則全球?qū)⒚媾R油價(jià)破壞性飆升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 這個(gè)石油卡特爾注意到了增加石油供應(yīng)的呼聲,而現(xiàn)在正是消費(fèi)放緩之際。
IEA的分析也與美國周三呼吁歐佩克及其盟友加快增產(chǎn)的呼聲不一致。美國是IEA最具影響力的成員國。
IEA在其月度報(bào)告中表示:“來自歐佩克+的直接增產(chǎn)與聯(lián)盟外需求增長(zhǎng)放緩和產(chǎn)量增加相沖突,消除了近期供應(yīng)緊縮或超級(jí)周期的揮之不去的暗示。”
8月迄今油價(jià)已下跌6%。 布倫特原油期貨目前接近每桶71美元,7月初曾觸及近78美元的兩年高位。
李峻 編譯自 彭博社
原文如下:
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Outlook on Virus
The International Energy Agency cut forecasts for global oil demand “sharply” for the rest of this year as the resurgent pandemic hits major consumers, and predicted a new surplus in 2022.
It’s a marked reversal for the Paris-based agency, which just a month ago was urging the OPEC+ alliance to open the taps or risk a damaging spike in prices. The oil cartel heeded calls to hike supply, which is now arriving just as consumption slackens.
The analysis also jars with Wednesday’s call from the U.S. -- the IEA’s most influential member -- for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to ramp production up faster.
“The immediate boost from OPEC+ is colliding with slower demand growth and higher output from outside the alliance, stamping out lingering suggestions of a near-term supply crunch or super cycle,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
Brent futures are trading near $71 a barrel, having hit a two-year high near $78 in early July.
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