自今年早些時候油價超過每桶70美元以來，分析師、經濟學家和各國央行一直在擔心，原油價格上漲是否會破壞全球經濟從疫情中復蘇的勢頭。

　　多數專家認為，發展中經濟體的通脹壓力無疑在上升，它們對油價上漲比發達市場更為敏感。在新興經濟體中，燃料和食品價格通常占更多的消費支出，因此當油價上漲時，它們對新興市場的傷害要大于對成熟市場的傷害。美國和其他發達國家也開始出現通脹擔憂。

　　然而，大多數分析師認為，油價(目前在每桶75美元左右)不會高到嚴重放緩經濟增長的程度，尤其是在美國和歐洲。在這些地區，服務占國內生產總值(GDP)的比重很大，而且還在不斷上升，而石油成本占GDP的比重仍低于長期平均水平。

　　經濟學家和分析師上周對《華爾街日報》(the Wall Street Journal)表示，油價尚未達到可能破壞發達市場經濟反彈的水平。

　　《華爾街日報》援引摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的估計稱，由于油價上漲，今年全球石油成本占GDP的比重將上升，但仍將低于長期平均水平。

　　到2021年，如果油價平均為每桶75美元，石油負擔將增加到全球GDP的2.8%。但即使是比前幾年更高的負擔也低于3.2%的長期平均水平，投資銀行說。

　　《華爾街日報》援引摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)今年早些時候的一份報告稱，要使所謂的石油負擔達到長期平均水平，油價平均需要再上漲10美元，即每桶85美元。

　　目前對發達經濟體的經濟預測顯示，今年的油價上漲不會對大流行后的增長復蘇造成重大沖擊。

　　就在上周，歐盟委員會(EC)提高了對歐盟和歐元區的短期經濟增長預測，預計2021年經濟增長4.8%，2022年增長4.5%。歐盟和歐元區對2021年夏季中期經濟預測的最新預測分別比僅一個季度前的春季預測高出0.6和0.5個百分點。

　　不過，歐盟委員會預計，不斷上漲的能源和大宗商品價格，以及生產瓶頸和一些原材料短缺，將給今年的通脹帶來上行壓力。

　　不過，分析師稱，發達經濟體(主要是美國和歐洲)被壓抑的消費需求料將維持經濟反彈，并至少目前抵消不斷上升的石油負擔。

　　彭博經濟的Maeva Cousin和Ziad Daoud指出，在歐洲和美國，油價上漲對經濟增長的壓力"相對于它們從冠狀病毒危機中復蘇后的強勁增長預期而言很小"。

　　據《華爾街日報》報道，這不僅是因為目前的預測認為發達經濟體將強勁反彈，還因為在服務業占GDP比重不斷上升的成熟經濟體，生產1美元GDP所需的石油減少了。

　　與幾十年前相比，預計原油價格上漲對發達經濟體整體經濟增長和前景的影響較小。但油價上漲無疑對發展中經濟體構成挑戰，尤其是對印度等嚴重依賴石油進口的國家。那里的通脹壓力更大，分析師認為油價超過80美元就是石油需求破壞的開始。

　　摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席石油分析師Martijn Rats本月早些時候對CNBC表示：“在此基礎上，我們預計將出現相當大程度的需求破壞。”

　　拉斯指出：“這將對經濟增長產生影響，因為如果石油需求不再以同樣快的速度增長，那么許多其他工業經濟過程將依賴于此。”

　　壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價

　　High Oil Prices Threaten The Global Economic Recovery

　　Since oil prices exceeded $70 per barrel earlier this year, analysts, economists, and central banks have been fretting about whether higher crude prices could disrupt the momentum in global economic recovery from the pandemic.

　　Most experts argue that inflationary pressure is no doubt rising in developing economies, which are more sensitive than developed markets to rising oil prices.

　　Fuel and food prices generally account for more consumer spending in emerging economies, so they hurt them more than mature markets when oil prices rise.

　　Inflation concerns have also started to emerge in the United States and other developed countries.

　　Yet, most analysts believe that oil prices—currently at around $75 a barrel —are not as high as to seriously slow down economic growth, especially in the U.S. and Europe. In those areas, services account for a large and growing share of gross domestic product, and the cost of oil as a share of GDP is still below the long-term average.

　　Oil prices have not reached the point yet where they could derail the economic rebound in developed markets, economists and analysts told The Wall Street Journal last week.

　　Globally, the cost of oil as a share of GDP, also known as the oil burden, will rise this year because of the higher oil prices, but it will still stay below long-term averages, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley cited by the Journal.

　　In 2021, the oil burden is set to increase to 2.8 percent of the world’s GDP if prices average $75 a barrel. But even this higher burden than in previous years would be lower than the long-term average of 3.2 percent, the investment bank says.

　　Oil would have to average $10 a barrel higher—$85—in order for the so-called oil burden to reach the long-term average, the Journal quoted a Morgan Stanley report from earlier this year.

　　Current economic projections for developed economies show that this year’s oil price rally will not be a significant bump to the post-pandemic growth recovery.

　　Just last week, the European Commission (EC) raised its short-term economic growth projection for the European Union and the Eurozone, expecting the economy to expand by 4.8 percent in 2021 and by 4.5 percent in 2022. The latest forecasts in the Summer 2021 interim Economic Forecast are 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points higher for the EU and the Eurozone, respectively, than in the spring forecast made just a quarter ago.

　　Still, the Commission expects rising energy and commodity prices to put upward pressure on inflation this year, alongside production bottlenecks and shortage of some raw materials.

　　However, pent-up consumer demand in developed economies, mostly in the United States and Europe, is set to sustain the economic rebound and offset, at least for now, the rising oil burden, analysts say.

　　In Europe and the United States, the pressure of higher oil prices on economic growth “is small in the context of the very strong growth expected as they emerge from the Covid crisis,” Bloomberg Economics’ Maeva Cousin and Ziad Daoud note.

　　That’s not only because current projections see a strong rebound in developed economies, but also because less oil is now needed to produce a dollar of GDP in mature economies where the share of the services sector is growing, according to the Journal.

　　Rising crude prices are expected to have a small effect on the overall economic growth and outlook on developed economies than they did a few decades ago. But higher prices are certainly challenging to developing economies, especially those heavily dependent on oil imports such as India. Inflationary pressures are stronger there, and analysts see $80 oil as the red line beyond which oil demand destruction begins.

　　“Above that, we would expect quite a bit of demand destruction to kick in,” Martijn Rats, chief oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC earlier this month.

　　“That then would have implications for economic growth because if oil demand doesn’t grow quite as fast anymore then an awful lot of other industrial economic processes depend on that,” Rats noted.

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