據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年6月25日 報(bào)道,盡管美國(guó)向最大的進(jìn)口市場(chǎng)亞洲出口液化天然氣(LNG)的運(yùn)輸成本飆升了65%,但美國(guó)的LNG海外出口量卻飆升至紀(jì)錄高位,并可能在今年晚些時(shí)候達(dá)到歷史新高。
據(jù)挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司(Rystad)估計(jì),截至今年6月,美國(guó)LNG出口到亞洲市場(chǎng)的短期邊際成本(SRMC)已上升至大約5.6美元/百萬英熱單(MMBtu)。Rystad在其最新報(bào)告中估計(jì),這一邊際成本比去年年中高出了65%,當(dāng)時(shí)LNG需求因疫情而受到抑制,比2020年4.3美元/MMBtu的平均水平高出了30%。
盡管運(yùn)輸成本上升,但美國(guó)LNG出口商預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)像去年需求低迷時(shí)那樣關(guān)閉產(chǎn)能。 今年,全球LNG需求強(qiáng)勁反彈,包括最重要的市場(chǎng)亞洲。
“然而,盡管成本大幅上升,美國(guó)并不是今年對(duì)亞洲來說最昂貴的LNG供應(yīng)國(guó)。 埃及LNG重返市場(chǎng),使這個(gè)北非國(guó)家成為L(zhǎng)NG的邊際供應(yīng)國(guó),SRMC約為6.30美元/ MMBtu。”
Rystad稱,由于亞洲需求強(qiáng)勁,且亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格約為12美元/MMBtu ,因此,即便是更高的運(yùn)輸成本也將被消化。
李峻 編譯自油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下:
U.S. LNG Exports Are Surging Despite Jump In Shipping Costs
Despite a 65-percent jump in the cost of U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas to the biggest import market, Asia, American LNG shipments abroad have soared to record highs and are likely to reach new all-time highs later this year.
According to estimates from independent energy research firm Rystad Energy, the short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of U.S. LNG exports to the Asian market has risen to about $5.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as of June 2021. That cost is a massive 65-percent higher than in the middle of last year, when LNG demand was depressed with the pandemic, and is 30 percent higher than the 2020 average of $4.30 per MMBtu, Rystad Energy estimates in its new report.
Despite the higher costs, U.S. exporters of LNG are not expected to shut in capacity as they did last year when demand was low. This year, LNG demand globally, including in the most important market, Asia, has rebounded strongly.
“Despite the significant cost increase, the US is not the most expensive supplier to Asia this year, however. The comeback of Egyptian LNG to the market has seen the North African country assume the role as the marginal supplier of LNG, with an SRMC of about $6.30 per MMBtu,” Rystad Energy said.
Even the higher costs would be absorbed because of the strong demand in Asia and the high Asian spot prices of around $12 per MMBtu, according to the research firm.
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