據(jù)世界石油 4月16日休斯敦報(bào)道，先鋒自然資源公司表示，若美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商恢復(fù)過(guò)去10年的高速產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)，他們將面臨與歐佩克及其盟國(guó)的另一場(chǎng)油價(jià)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

　　先鋒自然資源首席執(zhí)行官斯科特·謝菲爾德在彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BloombergNEF)年度峰會(huì)上表示，導(dǎo)致2020年石油市場(chǎng)最初崩潰的是頁(yè)巖油，而非疫情的流行。他指出，卡特爾企業(yè)聯(lián)盟對(duì)美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商成功從歐佩克手中奪取市場(chǎng)份額感到沮喪，因此致使油價(jià)下跌。

　　謝菲爾德還稱:“歐佩克和俄羅斯對(duì)我們?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)過(guò)快感到不滿。如果我們?cè)俅伍_(kāi)始過(guò)度增長(zhǎng)，就會(huì)爆發(fā)另一場(chǎng)價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。”

　　為了應(yīng)對(duì)去年的石油危機(jī)，美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商減少了資本支出、鉆井和就業(yè)，并與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手合并以支撐資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。其結(jié)果是損失了約200萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量，比整個(gè)墨西哥灣的產(chǎn)量還要多。但是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和沙特阿拉伯單方面減產(chǎn)，今年油價(jià)回升，對(duì)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油增產(chǎn)的誘惑越來(lái)越大。

　　美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)預(yù)計(jì)，2022年美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量平均為1190萬(wàn)桶，較本季度平均產(chǎn)量增加約100萬(wàn)桶，增幅為9%。謝菲爾德“完全反對(duì)”EIA的預(yù)測(cè)，他表示，生產(chǎn)商現(xiàn)在知道了其中的利害關(guān)系，并將堅(jiān)持資本紀(jì)律。

　　他指出:“如果明年我們的產(chǎn)量再增加100萬(wàn)桶/天，在我看來(lái)，到2023年，我們就會(huì)再次陷入價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。”

　　到目前為止，還沒(méi)有太多證據(jù)表明生產(chǎn)商顯著提高了該領(lǐng)域的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)，但在未來(lái)幾周，一旦公司開(kāi)始公布第一季度業(yè)績(jī)，投資者就會(huì)看到更清晰的畫(huà)面。周三，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格約為每桶62.80美元，約為一年前的三倍。

　　謝菲爾德預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)整體產(chǎn)量將以每年2% - 3%的速度增長(zhǎng)，其中大部分增長(zhǎng)來(lái)自西德克薩斯和新墨西哥州的二疊紀(jì)盆地，先鋒自然資源是那里最大的生產(chǎn)商之一。他表示，所有其他地區(qū)頁(yè)巖油田的產(chǎn)量都將下降。

　　注：Cartel:卡特爾，企業(yè)聯(lián)盟（通過(guò)統(tǒng)一價(jià)格、防止競(jìng)爭(zhēng)來(lái)增加共同利潤(rùn)）

　　裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　Higher U.S. shale output could spark an OPEC price war, warns Pioneer CEO

　　U.S. shale producers risk another oil-price war with OPEC and its allies if they resume the breakneck production growth of the last decade, according to Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

　　Shale, and not the pandemic, was responsible for the initial oil-market crash of 2020, CEO Scott Sheffield said at BloombergNEF’s annual summit. The cartel, frustrated at U.S. producers’ success in taking market share from OPEC, allowed prices to tumble, he said.

　　“OPEC and Russia were upset that we grew too much,” said Sheffield. “If we ever start growing again too much, we’re going to have another price war.”

　　U.S. producers responded to last year’s oil collapse by reducing capital spending, drilling and jobs as well as merging with rivals to shore up balance sheets. The result has been lost production of about 2 million barrels a day, or more than output from the entire Gulf of Mexico. But as prices rebound this year, due to both the economic recovery and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts, temptation is growing for U.S. shale to ramp up output.

　　The Energy Information Administration sees U.S. oil production averaging 11.9 million barrels a day in 2022, up about 1 million barrels, or 9%, from the average this quarter. Sheffield is “totally against” the EIA’s forecast, saying that producers now know the stakes and will stick to their mantra of capital discipline.

　　“If we grow another million barrels a day next year, we’re going to have another price war in my opinion going into ‘23,” he said.

　　So far there hasn’t been much evidence of producers significantly boosting activity in the field, but investors will get a clearer picture once companies begin reporting first-quarter earnings in the coming weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded at about $62.80 a barrel on Wednesday, about triple from a year ago.

　　Sheffield sees overall U.S. production growing at a annual rate of 2% to 3%, with most of the increases coming from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, where Pioneer is one of the largest producers. All other shale fields will decline, he said.

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