今年的全球能源結(jié)構(gòu)顯示，化石燃料繼續(xù)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，占一次能源消費(fèi)的82%，風(fēng)能和太陽能等可再生能源產(chǎn)能將迅速擴(kuò)張

去年以來地緣政治沖突對能源市場產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)影響，推高了天然氣和煤炭價(jià)格，同時(shí)擾亂了能源進(jìn)口，改變了歐洲的煤炭淘汰計(jì)劃

盡管風(fēng)能和太陽能等可再生能源取得了重大進(jìn)展，但來自能源的二氧化碳排放量達(dá)到歷史最高的344億噸，凸顯出其與《巴黎協(xié)定》目標(biāo)之間的差距越來越大

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月10日報(bào)道，英國石油公司（bp）已經(jīng)將其年度《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評論》報(bào)告的出版權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)交給了英國能源研究所(EI)。《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評論》報(bào)告有助于提供全球石油、天然氣和煤炭生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的綜合數(shù)據(jù)，以及二氧化碳排放和可再生能源統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。今天，我將介紹最近發(fā)布的《2023年世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評論》報(bào)告的亮點(diǎn)。

概述  

最新出版的《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評論》報(bào)告顯示，盡管太陽能和風(fēng)能等可再生能源繼續(xù)快速增長，但世界仍然嚴(yán)重依賴化石燃料來滿足能源需求。

雖然可再生能源以歷史最高速度增長，但化石燃料在一次能源消費(fèi)總量中仍占82%的份額。天然氣和煤炭需求幾乎持平，油價(jià)反彈至接近疫情前的水平。作為參考，這一比例低于2010年的87%。按照這樣的下降速度，化石燃料消耗將需要近200年的時(shí)間才能達(dá)到零。

去年全球能源需求增長1.1%創(chuàng)歷史新高，但低于2021年5.5%的增速。這是由多種因素造成的，包括擾亂能源市場的地緣政治沖突，以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。

全球可再生能源繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長，太陽能、風(fēng)能在一次能源消費(fèi)中的比重達(dá)到7.5%。這比前一年增長近1%。去年全球可再生能源(不包括水電)增長14%，略低于前一年16%的增幅。

去年，全球煤炭需求增長0.6%，達(dá)到2014年以來的最高水平。這是10年平均0.2%增長率的3倍。煤炭需求增長主要是由印度(4%)等推動(dòng)的。與2021年相比，全球煤炭產(chǎn)量增長超過7%，達(dá)到歷史新高。印度和印度尼西亞等國占全球煤炭產(chǎn)量增長的95%以上。

去年，全球石油需求增長3.1%，也遠(yuǎn)高于0.9%的10年平均增長率。這是由于疫情后經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇。全球去年石油消費(fèi)仍比2019年水平低0.7%。去年，全球石油日產(chǎn)量增加380萬桶，其中歐佩克+占增量的60%以上。在所有國家中，沙特阿拉伯(118.2萬桶/天)和美國(109.1萬桶/天)的增幅最大。

去年，全球天然氣需求下降3%，在2021年首次跌破4萬億立方米大關(guān)。去年，天然氣在一次能源消費(fèi)中所占的份額略有下降，從2021年的25%降至24%。這一下降的原因是去年歐洲和亞洲的天然氣價(jià)格達(dá)到歷史最高水平，歐洲的天然氣價(jià)格上漲近三倍，亞洲液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨市場的價(jià)格上漲一倍。去年，美國亨利中心天然氣的平均價(jià)格上漲50%以上，達(dá)到6.5美元/百萬英熱單位，這是自2008年以來的最高水平。

去年全球發(fā)電量增長2.3%，低于前一年6.2%的增長率。風(fēng)能和太陽能在全球發(fā)電總量中所占份額達(dá)到歷史最高水平的12%，其中太陽能和風(fēng)能分別增長25%和13.5%。去年風(fēng)能和太陽能的發(fā)電量再一次超過核能。

去年，煤炭仍是全球發(fā)電的主要燃料，占比穩(wěn)定在35.4%左右，略低于2021年的35.8%。去年天然氣發(fā)電保持穩(wěn)定，份額約為23%。核能發(fā)電量下降4.4%。去年，可再生能源(不包括水電)滿足84%的凈電力需求增長。

碳排放創(chuàng)歷史新高

與此同時(shí)，去年全球來自能源的二氧化碳排放量增加0.9%，達(dá)到344億噸的歷史新高，表明在遏制全球碳排放方面缺乏進(jìn)展。二氧化碳排放量已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)離《巴黎協(xié)定》所要求的減排目標(biāo)。

EI總裁朱麗葉·達(dá)文波特表示：“盡管風(fēng)能和太陽能在電力領(lǐng)域進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)勁增長，但全球與能源相關(guān)的溫室氣體排放總量再次增加。”“我們?nèi)栽诔c《巴黎協(xié)定》要求相反的方向邁進(jìn)。”

地緣政治沖突驅(qū)動(dòng)能源危機(jī)

這場危機(jī)導(dǎo)致德國等國停止了逐步淘汰煤炭的計(jì)劃，因?yàn)槟茉窗踩葰夂蚰繕?biāo)更重要。盡管歐洲和北美削減了煤炭消費(fèi)量，但印度等對煤炭的持續(xù)依賴提振了需求。

另一方面，風(fēng)能和太陽能在去年實(shí)現(xiàn)了歷史最高水平的增長。然而，由于發(fā)展中國家繼續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)向所有可用的能源來推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，這并沒有改變二氧化碳排放問題。

電動(dòng)汽車迅速普及，導(dǎo)致鋰和鈷等關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)緊張。但根據(jù)報(bào)告的發(fā)現(xiàn)，世界能源系統(tǒng)在從氣候變暖的化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)型方面仍然落后。報(bào)告指出，要在本世紀(jì)中葉實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放，還需要取得更大的進(jìn)展。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Fossil Fuels Still Account For 82% Of Primary Global Energy Consumption

·     The global energy mix in 2023 showed continued dominance of fossil fuels at 82% primary energy consumption, with renewables like wind and solar seeing rapid expansion.

·     The geopolitical conflicts profoundly impacted energy markets, driving up natural gas and coal prices while disrupting energy imports and altering coal phase-out plans in Europe.

·     Carbon dioxide emissions from energy reached a record 34.4 billion metric tons, highlighting the increasing gap from Paris Agreement targets, even as renewable energy sources like wind and solar achieved significant milestones.

As I indicated in the previous article, BP has turned over publication of the annual Statistical Review of World Energy to the Energy Institute (EI). The Statistical Review is instrumental in providing comprehensive data on global oil, gas, and coal production and consumption, as well as on carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy statistics.

The full report and all data can be found at this link. Today, I will cover the recently published 2023 report’s highlights.

Overview

The newest Review shows the world remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy needs, even as renewables like solar and wind continue rapid growth.

While renewable power expanded at record rates, fossil fuels maintained an 82% share of total primary energy consumption. Natural gas and coal demand stayed nearly flat with oil rebounding close to pre-pandemic levels. For reference, this is down from an 87% share in 2010. At that rate of decline, it would be nearly 200 years before fossil fuel consumption reached zero.

Global energy demand grew by 1.1% in 2022 to a new record, but slower than the 5.5% growth in 2021. This was due to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, which disrupted energy markets, and the economic slowdown in Asia.

Renewable energy continued to grow strongly, with solar and wind reaching a 7.5% share of primary energy consumption. This was an increase of nearly 1% over the previous year. Renewable power (excluding hydro) grew 14% in 2022, slightly below the previous year’s growth rate of 16%.

Global coal demand grew by 0.6% in 2022, to the highest level of coal consumption since 2014. The growth was triple the 10-year average growth rate of 0.2%. The growth in demand was largely driven by India (4%) etc.. Global coal production increased by over 7% compared to 2021, reaching a record high. India, and Indonesia etc.accounted for over 95% of the increase in global production.

Oil demand grew by 3.1% in 2022, also well ahead of the 0.9% 10-year growth average. This was due to the ongoing post-Covid economic recovery. Consumption remained 0.7% below 2019 levels. Global oil production increased by 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, with OPEC+ accounting for more than 60% of the increase. Among all countries, Saudi Arabia (1,182,000 bpd) and the US (1,091,000 bpd), saw the largest increases.

Global natural gas demand declined by 3% in 2022 dropping just below the 4 trillion cubic meter mark achieved for the first time in 2021. Its share in primary energy in 2022 decreased slightly to 24% (from 25% in 2021). The decline was attributable to record price levels in Europe and Asia in 2022, rising nearly threefold in Europe and doubling in the Asian LNG spot market. U.S. Henry Hub prices rose over 50% to average $6.5/MMBtu in 2022 – their highest annual level since 2008.

Global electricity generation increased by 2.3% in 2022 which was lower than the previous year’s growth rate of 6.2%. Wind and solar reached a record high of 12% share of power generation with solar recording 25% and wind power 13.5% growth in output. The combined generation from wind and solar once again surpassed that of nuclear energy.

Coal remained the dominant fuel globally for power generation in 2022, with a stable share around 35.4%, down slightly from 35.8% in 2021. Natural gas-fired power generation remained stable in 2022 with a share of around 23%. Output from nuclear power fell by 4.4%. Renewables (excluding hydro) met 84% of net electricity demand growth in 2022.

Record High Carbon Emissions

Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose 0.9% to a new high of 34.4 billion metric tons, indicating lack of progress in curbing worldwide carbon output. Emissions have moved further away from the reductions called for in the Paris Agreement.

“Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again,” said EI President Juliet Davenport. “We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement.”

Geopolitical conflicts Drives Energy Crisis

The crisis led countries like Germany to halt their coal phase-out plans as energy security took priority over climate goals. India’s ongoing reliance on coal boosted demand despite Europe and North America cutting consumption.

On a brighter note, wind and solar achieved record additions in 2022. However, this didn’t move the needle on emissions as developing nations continue turning to all available energy sources to fuel economic growth.

Electric vehicles (EVs) spread rapidly, straining supplies of key minerals like lithium and cobalt. But the world’s energy systems are still falling behind on transitioning away from climate-warming fossil fuels, according to the report’s findings. The Review indicated that far more progress is needed to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.