據MRCHUB網站7月3日莫斯科報道，據烴加工網信息顯示，周五油價上漲至每桶75美元以上，但由于擔心全球經濟活動和燃料需求疲軟，油價將連續第四個季度下跌。

截至格林尼治標準時間13時10分，9月交付的基準布倫特原油期貨上漲82美分，漲幅1.1%，至每桶75.33美元。周五到期的即月交易量較小的合約上漲52美分，至74.86美元。在到6月底的三個月里，該合約有望下降6%，這是連續第四個季度下降。

美國西得克薩斯中質原油（WTI）上漲86美分，漲幅1.2%，至70.72美元。該合約環比下跌6.5%，為連續第二個季度下跌。最近幾個月，主要經濟體的通脹壓力和利率上升給市場帶來了壓力。

但上周美國經濟活動增強和美國石油庫存大幅下降的跡象提供了支撐。沙特阿拉伯計劃在7月份進一步減產100萬桶/日，此外歐佩克+還計劃在2024年前限制供應，這為油價提供了進一步的支持。

匯豐銀行分析師在一份報告中表示，盡管歐佩克+/沙特阿拉伯宣布了兩輪新的減產，但原油價格基本上仍保持在每桶80美元以下，因為市場受基本面影響較小，受宏觀經濟擔憂影響較大。

“我們認為，在夏季的部分時間里，這種情況將繼續存在，盡管預計今年下半年將出現約230萬桶的嚴重缺口，這將有助于刺激價格上漲勢頭?！甭吠干鐚?7名經濟學家和分析師進行的調查顯示，隨著全球經濟逆風的持續，今年油價將難以上漲。作為未來供應指標的美國石油鉆機數量數據將于周五晚些時候公布。

郝芬 譯自 MRCHUB

原文如下：

Oil heads for fourth straight quarterly decline

Oil prices rose above USD75 a barrel on Friday but were on course for a fourth consecutive quarter of losses amid concerns over sluggish global economic activity and fuel demand, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery were up 82 cents, or 1.1%, at USD75.33 a barrel by 1310 GMT. The less-traded front-month contract, which expires on Friday, was up 52 cents at USD74.86. The contract was on track for a 6% decline in the three months to the end of June, marking a fourth straight quarterly decline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 86 cents or 1.2% to USD70.72. The contract is down 6.5% on a quarterly basis, its second consecutive quarterly drop. Inflationary pressure and rising interest rates in key economies  have weighed on markets in recent months.

But signs of strengthening U.S. economic activity and sharp declines in U.S. oil inventories last week offered support. Saudi Arabia's plans to cut output by a further 1 million barrels per day in July in addition to a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 offers further support.

"Despite the announcements of two fresh rounds of cuts from OPEC+/Saudi Arabia, crude prices have largely remained below $80 a barrel as the market has been driven less by fundamentals and more by macroeconomic concerns," HSBC analysts said in a note.

"We think this will continue to be the case for part of the summer, although the deep deficit of around 2.3 million barrels forecast for 2H23 should help to spur some upwards price momentum." A Reuters survey of 37 economists and analysts showed oil prices will struggle for traction this year as global economic headwinds linger. U.S. oil rig count data, an indicator of future supply, will be released later on Friday.