婷婷六月激情在线综合激情,国产高清一级毛片在线人,日韩美女一级视频,99久久亚洲国产高清观看,成人小视频网,国产精品一区二区三区四区

  • 全國

BNEF:全球道路運輸的石油需求將在2027年達到峰值

   2023-06-13 互聯網綜合消息

82

核心提示:據鉆機地帶網站6月9日報道,彭博社新能源財經(BloombergNEF,BNEF)周四表示,由于未來幾年電動汽車的使用量

據鉆機地帶網站6月9日報道,彭博社新能源財經(BloombergNEF,BNEF)周四表示,由于未來幾年電動汽車的使用量將激增,全球道路運輸的總體石油需求將在2027年達到峰值。

該研究公司在其年度《電動汽車展望》報告中表示,電動汽車的使用已經取代了150萬桶/日的石油需求,而且電動汽車“在未來幾年將急劇上升”。

據報告稱,美國和歐洲對道路燃料的需求已經達到峰值,亞洲大國將于2024年達到峰值。全球兩輪車、三輪車和公交車的石油需求也已經達到峰值,而乘用車的需求將在2025年達到峰值。然而,BNEF表示,由于重型卡車對柴油的依賴,商用車對石油的需求將需要更長時間才能達到峰值。

根據BNEF的經濟轉型情景,2040年公路運輸的石油需求將降至3350萬桶/日,比2022年的水平低約21%。據報告稱,除了電動汽車日益重要的作用外,燃油效率的提高和共享交通的普及也對減少石油需求起到了重要作用。

然而,報告稱,石油需求的下降并不一定意味著油價暴跌。如果對新供應能力的投資下降速度快于需求,油價可能會保持波動和高位。考慮了供暖電氣化、工業和電解槽氫氣使用帶來的額外需求的BNEF凈零情景,預測在2050年全面淘汰道路運輸的過程中,石油需求將大幅下降。

根據該報告稱,通過電池直接電氣化是實現道路運輸完全脫碳最有效、最具成本效益和最具商業可行性的途徑。該研究公司表示,燃料電池汽車發揮了一定的作用,特別是在一些“難以電氣化的長途卡車應用”中,但“在乘用車市場上沒有發揮任何有意義的作用”。此外,該報告稱,合成燃料沒有及時達到“對公路運輸產生重大影響”所需的規模或價格點。

全球電動汽車銷量預測

據該報告稱,未來幾年電動汽車銷量將繼續增長,從2022年的1050萬輛增加到2026年的2700萬輛左右,電動汽車在全球新乘用車中的份額將從2022年的14%躍升至2026年的30%。

一些市場的份額可能會更高,電動汽車在亞洲大國和歐洲的銷量分別達到52%和42%。該報告稱,到2026年,美國的《通貨膨脹削減法案》可能會將電動乘用車銷量推至28%。日本在電動汽車普及方面“明顯落后”于其他國家。車隊運營商將看到更快的增長,從2022年底的2700萬輛乘用車增加到2026年的1億多輛。

與此同時,報告稱,內燃汽車的銷量在2017年達到峰值,目前“處于長期下降狀態”。到2026年,內燃汽車的銷量將比2017年的峰值低39%,而內燃汽車將在2025年達到峰值。

根據BNEF的預測,到2030年,電動汽車將占全球乘用車銷量的44%,到2040年將占75%。報告稱,在2022年至2035年快速增長后,歐洲、亞洲大國和美國等主要電動汽車市場的電動汽車銷量增長將在本世紀30年代末略有放緩,因為它們開始飽和。

實現凈零排放需要更快的進展

BNEF表示,到2050年實現道路運輸凈零排放仍然是可能的,但需要“更快的進展”。該報告指出,重型卡車“遠遠落后于凈零排放軌跡”,該行業應成為政府決策者的“優先關注點”。電動重型卡車的經濟性將在整個本世紀20年代迅速提高,甚至在長途應用中也將變得與柴油同等實惠。然而,報告稱,燃料成本仍然很重要,天然氣將保持經濟競爭力。

該研究還將電網投資、電網連接和許可程序確定為需要精簡的領域,以“支持過渡所需的大量充電網點”。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶 網站

原文如下:

Global Oil Demand for Road Transport to Peak in 2027: BNEF

Overall global oil demand for road transport will peak in 2027 as electric vehicle (EV) usage will surge in the coming years, BloombergNEF (BNEF) said Thursday.

The usage of EVs is already displacing demand for 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, and this displacement “rises dramatically in the years ahead”, the research firm said in its annual Electric Vehicle Outlook report.

Demand for road fuel has already peaked in the USA and Europe, and is set to peak in 2024 in China, the report said. Global oil demand from two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and buses has also already peaked, while demand from passenger cars will peak in 2025. However, commercial vehicle demand for oil will take longer to peak due to the reliance of heavy trucks on diesel, BNEF said.

According to BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, oil demand from road transport will drop to 33.5 million bpd in 2040, around 21 percent lower than 2022 levels. Aside from the rising role of electric vehicles, fuel efficiency improvement of combustion vehicles and the uptake of shared mobility also have a significant part in reducing oil demand, the report said.

However, the fall in oil demand does not necessarily mean a collapse in oil prices, it said. Oil prices could remain volatile and high if investments in new supply capacity fall faster than demand, the report said. BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario, which accounts for additional demand from the electrification of heating, industry, and electrolyzer use for hydrogen, forecasts a steeper drop in oil demand in the process of a full phaseout from road transport in 2050.

According to the report, direct electrification via batteries is the most efficient, cost-effective, and commercially available route to fully decarbonize road transport. Fuel cell vehicles play a part, specifically in some “hard-to-electrify long-haul trucking applications but “play no meaningful role in the passenger vehicle market”, the research firm said. Also, synthetic fuels do not arrive at scale in time or at a price point needed to “have a material impact on road transport”, the report said.

Global EV Sales Projection

EV sales will continue to rise in the next few years, increasing from 10.5 million in 2022 to around 27 million in 2026, the report said, with EV share of global new passenger vehicles jumping from 14 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2026.

Shares in some markets could be much higher, with EVs reaching 52 percent of sales in the biggest country in Asia and 42 percent in Europe. In the USA, the Inflation Reduction Act could push EV passenger vehicle sales to 28 percent by 2026, according to the report. Japan “significantly lags” behind other countries in EV adoption, the report said. Fleet operators will see even quicker growth, increasing from 27 million passenger EVs on the road at the end of 2022 to over 100 million by 2026.

Meanwhile, sales of internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and are now “in long-term decline”, the report said. By 2026, sales of combustion vehicles will be 39 percent lower than their 2017 peak, while the combustion vehicle fleet peaks in 2025, according to the report.

According to BNEF projections, EVs will reach 44 percent of global passenger vehicle sales by 2030 and 75 percent by 2040. After increasing rapidly from 2022 to 2035, EV sales growth will slow down slightly in the late 2030s in the main EV markets like Europe,the biggest country in Asia, and the USA as they begin to saturate, the report said.

Faster Progress Required to Achieve Net Zero

Achieving net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 is still possible but requires “much faster progress”, BNEF said. The report identifies heavy trucks as being “far behind the net-zero trajectory”, and the industry should be a “priority focus” for government policymakers. The economics of electric heavy trucks will improve rapidly throughout the 2020s and become as cheap as diesel equivalents even for long-haul applications. However, fuel costs will still matter and natural gas will remain economically competitive, the report said.

The study also identifies grid investments, grid connections, and permitting processes as areas that need to be streamlined to “support the large number of charging points needed for the transition”.



免責聲明:本網轉載自其它媒體的文章及圖片,目的在于弘揚石化精神,傳遞更多石化信息,宣傳國家石化產業政策,展示國家石化產業形象,參與國際石化產業輿論競爭,提高國際石化產業話語權,并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責,在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以崇高敬意。如果您認為本站文章及圖片侵犯了您的版權,請與我們聯系,我們將第一時間刪除。
 
 
更多>同類資訊
  • china
  • 沒有留下簽名~~
推薦圖文
推薦資訊
點擊排行
網站首頁  |  關于我們  |  聯系方式  |  使用說明  |  隱私政策  |  免責聲明  |  網站地圖  |   |  工信部粵ICP備05102027號

粵公網安備 44040202001354號

 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产不卡精品一区二区三区 | 亲爱的妈妈3 | 四虎免费电影 | 四虎官网 | 国产毛片一区二区 | 鸥美黄色 | 高清欧美不卡一区二区三区 | www.四色| 久久99精品久久久久久噜噜噜 | 一级毛片免费观看 | 非洲特黄一级毛片高清视频 | 免费播放一区二区三区 | 免费高清欧美一区二区视频 | 人人看97 | 2021精品国产综合久久 | a男人天堂 | 男女在线免费视频 | 欧美日韩中文亚洲另类春色 | 国产毛毛片 | 国产一区二区免费视频 | 婷婷开心激情网 | 视频免费观看 | 国产精品视频一区二区三区w | 欧美精品性生活 | 啪啪一级片 | 国产精品久久一区 | 日韩国产精品99久久久久久 | 国产欧美日韩亚洲 | 一级毛片全部免费播放 | 国产精品亚洲综合天堂夜夜 | 手机香蕉网| 国产成人理在线观看视频 | 99久久精品免费视频 | 国产免费区 | 久久国产精品二国产精品 | 久久有码中文字幕 | 日韩欧美在线视频观看 | 天天射天天操天天色 | 午夜.dj高清在线观看免费4 | 久久精品国产欧美成人 | 国内精品久久久久影 |