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四種情況可能促使油價漲至200美元

   2023-04-26 互聯網綜合消息

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核心提示:油價達到200美元是有可能的,盡管可能性不大可能的情況包括地緣政治沖突的嚴重升級或持續的投資不足導致供

油價達到200美元是有可能的,盡管可能性不大

可能的情況包括地緣政治沖突的嚴重升級或持續的投資不足導致供應減少

分析人士喜歡說,解決高油價的方法是高油價,這是正確的

據油價網4月23日報道,這本是去年的熱門話題:貿易商押注到今年3月油價將達到200美元。對沖基金經理警告稱,在2022年結束之前,甚至可能達到250美元。

所有這些都沒有發生,事后看來,原因很容易理解:全球石油市場已經一次又一次地證明,它比貿易商所認為的更有彈性。但200美元的油價還有可能嗎?在某些情況下,總有可能性。

地緣政治沖突嚴重升級

正是因為去年地緣政治沖突,人們才開始談論200美元。皮埃爾·安杜蘭德(Pierre Andurand)甚至更進一步,他警告稱,油價可能會漲到250美元,因為“我認為我們將永遠失去產能大國在歐洲的供應”。

事實證明,歐洲方面并沒有失去供應,只是現在通過第三國獲得了供應,這使全球經濟免于油價引發的嚴重衰退。石油總能找到出路。

然而,沖突的重大升級(可能是通過北約更直接的介入)可能會推高油價。即使在升級的情況下,也不確定它們是否會達到200美元,因為市場在任何時間內都不太可能承受這個價格,但這并非不可能。

歐佩克+進一步減產

就機會而言,這種情況發生的可能性比第一種情況要小。為了使油價達到200美元,歐佩克+需要進一步減產,但更重要的是,該組織不得不減產。但事實并非如此。因為200美元的價格太高了,這會削弱需求。

歐佩克+在其最新舉措中表示,其最佳價格點約為每桶80~90美元,因此正試圖將價格保持在該水平附近。

生產中斷也有可能會推高油價,即使生產中斷導致停產的數量只有每天40萬桶,就像我們最近看到的伊拉克出口爭端所看到的那樣。

投資不足

到目前為止,以上概述的情況更多的是一種心理鍛煉,而不是現實場景。盡管至少有幾種看起來很有可能讓貿易商購買200美元的布倫特期權。

然而,還有一種情況是現實的。它不像戰爭那樣夸夸其談,但這讓它變得更加危險。在這種情況下,持續的投資不足會嚴重縮減供應,導致價格只能上漲。

沙特阿拉伯一直在對此發出警告。美國頁巖生產商一直在對此提出警告。七國集團剛剛宣布,他們將打擊“有增無減的化石燃料”,這本質上意味著阻止更多的石油和天然氣生產。

當然,這一宣言的價值并不比紙面意義高多少,如果可能的話,誰也不會希望油價很快達到200美元。如果這些國家的政府打擊所謂的“有增無減”的化石燃料,世界石油供應將面臨風險。

分析人士喜歡說,解決高油價的方法是高油價,他們是正確的。控制一種商品價格的一個非常有效的方法是讓它上漲到足以扼殺需求的程度。

但如果這種商品和石油一樣重要,會發生什么呢?不使用石油將把人們帶回到一個更簡單但不那么豐富、富裕的時代。

幸運的是,即使對新石油和天然氣勘探的持續投資不足,也可能不足以將價格一路推高至200美元。因為在技術的幫助下,該行業總是會通過調整產量來應對需求。投資不足使這一目標更難實現,但并非不可能。即使是最雄心勃勃的七國集團(G7)政府也不準備對石油實施徹底禁令。

郝芬 譯自 油價網

原文如下:

Four Scenarios That Could Send Oil Prices To $200

*Oil at $200 is a possibility, although unlikely to happen.

*Possible scenarios include a major escalation in the Ukraine conflict or consistent underinvestment leading to a reduction in supply.

*Analysts love to say that the cure for high oil prices is high prices, and they are correct.

It was the talk of the town last year. Traders bet on oil hitting $200 by March this year. Hedge fund managers warned it could even reach $250 before 2022 was over.

None of that happened, and in hindsight, it’s easy to see why: global oil markets have time and again proved they are a lot more resilient than traders give them credit for. But is oil at $200 still a possibility? It always is, under certain scenarios.

Major Ukraine escalation

It was because of the war last year that people started talking about $200. Pierre Andurand went even further, warning that oil could rise to $250 because “I think we’re losing the supply on the European side for ever.”

It turned out that the European side is not losing supply but is simply getting it through third countries now, so that’s saved the global economy from a major oil price-induced headache. Oil always finds a way.

Yet a major escalation in the conflict, possibly through more direct NATO involvement, could send prices flying high. It’s not certain they would reach $200 even in an escalation scenario because it’s highly unlikely the market could bear this price for any length of time, but it’s not impossible.

More OPEC+ cuts

As far as chances go, this scenario is less likely than the first one. To get prices to $200, OPEC+ would need to cut much deeper, but more importantly, the group would have to want it. It doesn’t. Because $200 is way too high a price, and it would sap demand.

OPEC+ has suggested with its latest moves that its sweet price spot is around $80-90 per barrel, so it is trying to keep prices around that level.

Production outages could push oil prices higher, as they invariably do, even when the outage is as small as 400,000 bpd, as we recently saw with the Kurdistan-Iraq export dispute.

Yet outages do not move prices so radically as to take them from sub-$90 to $200, so this is an even less likely scenario. An attack on Saudi production facilities could do the trick if it’s very successful, such an attack has become purely hypothetical.

Underinvestment comes to bite

The scenarios outlined so far are more of a mental exercise than realistic scenarios. None of them are particularly likely, even though at least a couple seemed so likely they made traders buy $200 Brent options.

Yet there is one more scenario that is a realistic one. It’s not as bombastic as a war, but that makes it all the more dangerous. It is the scenario where consistent underinvestment shrinks supply so much, that prices have nowhere to go but up.

Saudi Arabia has been warning about it. U.S. shale producers have been warning about it. And the G7 just declared they would fight “unabated fossil fuels,” which essentially means discouraging more oil and gas production.

Of course, that declaration is worth little more than the paper it was written on, and that is the world’s greatest hope that oil will not hit $200 anytime soon, if ever. If those governments get serious about what they call unabated fossil fuels, the world’s oil supply will be at risk.

Analysts love to say that the cure for high oil prices is high prices, and they are correct. A very efficient way to control the price of a commodity is to let it rise so much it kills demand.

But what happens if that commodity is as essential as oil? Not using oil takes people back through the ages to a simpler but a lot less abundant, wealthy time. Just ask a Kenyan farmer how he likes that.

Luckily for all, even the consistent underinvestment in new oil and gas exploration may not be enough to take prices all the way to $200. Because the industry, with the help of technology, will always respond to demand by adjusting production. Underinvestment has made this harder but not impossible. And even the most ambitious G7 government is not ready to impose an outright ban on oil. 



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