據(jù)鉆機地帶3月28日報道，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)分析師在上周晚些時候發(fā)給Rigzone的一份報告中透露，渣打的原油基金經理定位指數(shù)（SC Oil Positioning Index）出現(xiàn)了六年來最大的單周跌幅。

根據(jù)報告，西得克薩斯中質油(WTI) NYMEX下跌36.0點至-67.6點，WTI ICE下跌17.7點至-96.5點，布倫特NYMEX下跌17.3點至2.4點，布倫特ICE下跌28.9點至-27.6點。報告強調，渣打原油綜合倉位指數(shù)下跌41.6點，至-67.0。

渣打銀行分析師還透露，他們的汽油倉位指數(shù)20個月來首次轉為負值，下降36.4至-6.6，他們在報告中指出，他們認為目前在石油上的倉位已經足夠做空，可以看漲油價。

分析師在報告中表示：“γ效應在當前價格上的逆轉，應該也會支持短期走高。”

渣打銀行在其最新報告中指出，美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)公布了最后一批積壓的倉位數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)是由于第三方數(shù)據(jù)提供商遭受網絡攻擊而產生的。

在這份結合了CFTC數(shù)據(jù)和洲際交易所(Intercontinental Exchange)同等數(shù)據(jù)的報告中，分析師們指出，“原油和汽油出現(xiàn)大量拋售，同時資金迅速轉向貴金屬”。

“基金經理在截至3月14日的一周內凈拋售了四份主要的布倫特和WTI合約，總計1.2810億桶。”分析師補充道。

“CFTC的下一份數(shù)據(jù)……將顯示截至3月21日(價格跌至低點后一天)的頭寸，并可能顯示進一步的投機平倉。”分析師們繼續(xù)表示。

分析師表示，根據(jù)渣打銀行的牛熊指數(shù)，美國能源情報署(EIA)最新數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)中性。

分析師表示：“盡管汽油和餾分油大幅減少，但原油庫存較五年平均水平增加了335萬桶，需求仍然疲弱，原油產量上升。”

“在今年早些時候出現(xiàn)大量負面數(shù)據(jù)之后，任何積極的數(shù)據(jù)都可能改善市場人氣。現(xiàn)在EIA數(shù)據(jù)變得更加樂觀，所需要的只是每周原油余額中的幾個需求數(shù)據(jù)，以幫助減少超過五年平均水平的3365萬桶原油盈余。”分析師補充道。

在3月21日發(fā)給Rigzone的另一份報告中，渣打銀行分析師概述稱，他們認為石油供需平衡“對價格的影響相對溫和”。

分析師在報告中表示：“這并沒有為近期油價跌至每桶70美元提供多少基本面支持，但也不支持今年油價持續(xù)飆升至每桶100美元以上。”

渣打銀行在21日的報告書中預測，今年WTI的平均價格為每桶88美元，2004年為每桶95美元，2005年為每桶106美元。報告預計，布倫特原油2023年平均每桶91美元，2024年平均每桶98美元，2025年平均每桶109美元。

在上周發(fā)給Rigzone的一份聲明中，伍德麥肯茲指出，“無論是從基數(shù)還是從高位來看”，亞洲恢復正常流動性預計將在2023年推動全球石油需求強勁復蘇。

市場分析人士補充說：“這應該會使布倫特原油價格從目前的水平上升到2023年的平均每桶89.40美元。”

伍德麥肯茲在聲明中表示，更樂觀的情況是，2023年建筑活動增加將推動亞洲石油需求進一步上升，并強調這可能推動年度油價每桶上漲3至5美元。

高盛(Goldman Sachs) 3月6日在其網站上發(fā)布的一份聲明中指出，根據(jù)高盛研究(Goldman Sachs Research)的一份報告，到今年年底，油價可能升至每桶107美元的高位，“這取決于歐佩克如何應對新興市場狀況”。

本月晚些時候，彭博社(Bloomberg)報道稱，高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師“現(xiàn)在認為，布倫特原油價格在未來12個月將達到每桶94美元，2024年下半年將達到每桶97美元，此前為每桶100美元”。

壽琳玲 編譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Largest Single Week Drop in 6 Years for SC Oil Positioning Index

Analysts at Standard Chartered revealed in a report sent to Rigzone late last week that their crude oil positioning index saw its largest single week decline in six years.

According to the report, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) NYMEX fell 36.0 points to -67.6, WTI ICE fell 17.7 points to -96.5, Brent NYMEX fell 17.3 to 2.4, and Brent ICE dropped 28.9 points to -27.6. The combined crude oil Standard Chartered positioning index fell 41.6 points to -67.0, the report highlighted.

The Standard Chartered analysts, who also revealed that their gasoline positioning index turned negative for the first time in 20 months, falling by 36.4 to -6.6, noted in the report that they think positioning in oil is now short enough to be price positive.

“The reversal of gamma effects at current prices should also support a short-term move higher,” the analysts stated in the report.

In its latest report, Standard Chartered noted that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had published the last of the backlog of positioning data that arose from a cyberattack on a third-party data provider.

In the report, which combined the CFTC data with equivalent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data, the analysts noted that “there was heavy selling of crude oil and gasoline, combined with a rapid move by funds into precious metals”.

“Money manager net selling across the four main Brent and WTI contracts totaled 128.1 million barrels in the week to 14 March,” the analysts added.

“The next CFTC data … will show positions as of 21 March, a day after the price low, and is likely to show a further speculative unwind,” the analysts continued.

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was neutral, according to Standard Chartered’s bull-bear index, the analysts said.

“While there were strong draws in gasoline and distillates, crude oil inventories rose 3.35 million barrels against the five-year average, demand is still weak, and crude oil output rose,” the analysts stated.

“After the torrent of negative data earlier this year, any positive data is likely to improve sentiment. All that is now needed for the EIA data to become more bullish is a few more blue boxes in the week on week crude oil balance to help reduce the 33.65 million barrel surplus of crude above the five-year average,” the analysts added.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone on March 21, analysts at Standard Chartered outlined that they thought their oil supply-demand balance was “relatively benign in terms of its price implications”.

“It does not lend much fundamental support to the recent push down to $70 per barrel, but it also does not support any sustained surge this year above $100 per barrel,” the analysts stated in that report.

In its March 21 report, Standard Chartered projected that WTI would average $88 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2004, and $106 per barrel in 2005. Brent was projected to average $91 per barrel in 2023, $98 per barrel in 2024, and $109 per barrel in 2025 in the report.

In a statement sent to Rigzone last week, Wood Mackenzie noted that Asian return to normal mobility is expected to drive a strong recovery in global oil demand in 2023 “from both a base and high case perspective”.

“This should see Brent crude prices rising from current levels to average $$89.40 per barrel for 2023,” Hittle added.

The more bullish high case scenario would see increased construction activity driving Asian oil demand even higher in 2023, Wood Mackenzie said in the statement, highlighting that this could push annual oil prices higher by $3-$5 per barrel.

In a statement posted on its website on March 6, Goldman Sachs noted that, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Research, oil prices could rise as high as $107 a barrel by the end of the year “depending on how OPEC responds to emerging market conditions”.

Later on in the month, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs analysts “now see Brent reaching $94 a barrel for the 12 months ahead, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, versus $100 a barrel previously”.