美國頁巖巨頭先鋒自然資源公司間接闡明美國頁巖鉆井商不愿鉆探更多新井的原因

能源股成為今年股市上表現(xiàn)最好的股票

近幾個月來，美國能源部對美國石油行業(yè)采取較為溫和的立場

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)12月21日報道，12月早些時候，白宮首席能源顧問稱頁巖鉆井商是“非美國人”，盡管美國政府多次呼吁提高原油產(chǎn)量，但他們拒絕提高原油產(chǎn)量。現(xiàn)在，美國能源行業(yè)正在進(jìn)行反擊。美國頁巖巨頭先鋒自然資源公司首席執(zhí)行官斯科特·謝菲爾德是最直言不諱的能源行業(yè)高管之一，他間接地解釋說，頁巖鉆井公司不會再鉆更多新井。

謝菲爾德在接受英國《金融時報》采訪時表示，現(xiàn)在恢復(fù)原油產(chǎn)量增長將導(dǎo)致投資者外流，能源股將跌至股市底部。這就是沒有公共石油鉆井公司會這么做的原因。

謝菲爾德對英國《金融時報》表示：“你必須意識到：當(dāng)你實(shí)現(xiàn)2%的已用資本回報率時，你最終將跌至標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的底部。因此，如果我們最終按照能源顧問所說的要求行事，我們最終將跌回標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的底部。”

業(yè)內(nèi)人士和分析師都認(rèn)為，投資者要求更高回報的壓力是美國頁巖油行業(yè)目前不愿像過去油價上漲時那樣開始增加原油產(chǎn)量的原因之一。

多年來，這些投資者一直在關(guān)注頁巖鉆井商如何燒錢，以使美國成為世界上最大的石油生產(chǎn)國。然后，他們不得不在2020年目睹這一切崩潰，油價歷史上首次跌破零，盡管下跌時間很短。 

兩年后的今天，無論是油價還是頁巖鉆井商，情況都發(fā)生了很大的變化。似乎沒有一家頁巖公司有野心去看看，如果它投入精力和資源，它能生產(chǎn)多少原油。相反，頁巖鉆井商正在重新學(xué)習(xí)資本紀(jì)律，并在被忽視多年后優(yōu)先考慮股東利益。

因此，英國《金融時報》在對謝菲爾德的采訪報道中指出，能源股已成為今年股市上表現(xiàn)最好的股票。任何一家能源公司都不太可能拿這樣的業(yè)績冒險，僅僅為了響應(yīng)一個從一開始就反對整個石油行業(yè)的政府的呼吁。

然而，正如謝菲爾德在接受英國《金融時報》采訪時指出的那樣，也存在一些純粹的實(shí)際限制。與幾年前相比，油田服務(wù)的成本大幅上升，而且設(shè)備短缺。

事實(shí)上，白宮向石油行業(yè)傳遞的信息的時間跨度非常短，關(guān)注的都是當(dāng)下，其中顯然包含這樣一種假設(shè)：只要政府抱有一點(diǎn)善意，石油工業(yè)就能在幾天內(nèi)將原油日產(chǎn)量再增加100萬桶。

然而，就目前而言，這實(shí)際上是不可能的，暴利的誘惑也沒有讓鉆井商有更慷慨的心情。美國能源部上周發(fā)出更為溫和的信息也是如此。

能源部對一個行業(yè)協(xié)會說：“我們渴望與你們合作。”并承認(rèn)，石油和天然氣還將被使用很長一段時間，并承認(rèn)，如果能源轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)生得太快，“可能會產(chǎn)生意想不到的后果，傷害人們的利益，引發(fā)價格反彈。”

正如彭博新聞社所說，這支橄欖枝本身可能是一個積極的信號，但它不太可能改變頁巖鉆井商的想法。他們根本沒有充分的理由繼續(xù)鉆取新井，而美國政府也不能給他們一個理由。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Shale Giant Pioneer Explains Why U.S. Drillers Won’t Drill More

·     Pioneer Natural Resources’ CEO Scott Sheffield indirectly told the White House why U.S. shale drillers aren’t eager to drill more.

·     Energy stocks have become the best performers on the stock market this year.

·     Energy Secretary Granholm has taken a softer stance on the oil industry in recent months.

Earlier this month, the White House’s top energy advisor Amos Hochstein called shale drillers “un-American” for their refusal to boost oil production despite the administrations’ multiple calls to that effect. Now, the industry is striking back. Pioneer Natural Resources’ CEO Scott Sheffield, one of the most outspoken industry executives, has indirectly explained to the White House that shale drillers will not be drilling more and that is it. And he had an excellent reason for it.

Speaking to the Financial Times in an interview, Sheffield said that returning to production growth now would cause an outflow of investors and energy stocks will plummet to the bottom of the stock market. And this is why no public oil driller would do it.

“You’ve got to realise: when you produce a 2 per cent return on capital employed, you end up being at the bottom of the S&P 500,” Sheffield told the FT. “And so if we end up doing what he’s asking us to do, we’ll end up back at the bottom of the S&P 500.”

Investor pressure for higher returns has been one of the reasons given by both industry and analysts for the current unwillingness of the U.S. shale oil industry to start ramping up output the way it always did in the past when prices rose.

These investors have been watching for years how shale drillers burn their cash in order to turn the United States in the biggest oil producer in the world. Then they had to watch all this breakdown in 2020 with oil prices dropping below zero for the first time in history, even though the drop was a short one.

Now, two years later, things are very different both with oil prices and with shale drillers. No company seems to have the ambition to see just how much oil it can produce if it puts its mind and resources to it. Instead, shale drillers are relearning capital discipline and prioritizing their shareholders after, one might say, years of neglect.

As a result, the FT points out in its story on the interview with Sheffield, energy stocks have become the best performers on the stock market this year. It is unlikely that any energy company would risk this performance just to respond to the calls of an administration that has from the start been against the whole oil industry.

Yet, there are also purely practical constraints as well, as Sheffield noted in his talk with the FT. Oilfield services cost a lot more than they did a couple of years ago and there are equipment shortages.

Indeed, messaging from the White House to the oil industry has had a remarkably short horizon, the focus being on the present and involving the apparent assumption that with a bit of good will, the industry could add another million barrels daily to output in a matter of days.

For now, however, this is physically impossible, and threats of windfall profits have not helped put drillers in a more generous mood. Neither has the much softer message that came last week from Energy Secretary Granholm.

“We are eager to work with you,” she told an industry association, acknowledging that oil and gas were going to be used for a long time yet and admitting the energy transition, if it happens too fast, “could have unintended consequences that hurt people, cause backlash.”

This olive branch, as Bloomberg called it, might be a positive sign in itself but it is unlikely to change shale drillers’ minds. There is simply no good reason for them to drill more and the administration cannot give them one.