? 撒哈拉以南非洲地區的天然氣日產量預計到2030年將增至270萬桶油當量。
? 由于全球天然氣需求持續增長,進口國面臨供應難題,非洲地區的天然氣生產前景呈現一片光明。
? 莫桑比克、南非和毛里塔尼亞等國的未開發深水氣田可能成為非洲地區天然氣產量增長的主要驅動力。
據美國油價網2月23日報道,挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司(Rystad)的研究顯示,撒哈拉以南非洲地區未開發的天然氣儲量將在2030年前得到釋放,由于大量未開發的深水資源,非洲地區天然氣日產量將從去年的130萬桶油當量增加一倍多,到2030年達到270萬桶油當量。
盡管迄今為止,深水開發在非洲地區的液體產量中發揮著關鍵作用,平均約占年產量的50%,但此類油田的天然氣產量卻很少。 然而,隨著未來幾年深海天然氣儲量的激增,這種情況有望改變。 深水開發項目的日產量將從去年的12萬桶油當量 (占大陸架和陸地總產量的9%)飆升至100萬桶油當量 (占總產量的38%)。
由于全球對天然氣的需求持續上升,以及進口國面臨供應難題,非洲地區的天然氣生產前景呈現一片光明。 深水油氣產量預計將在21世紀30年代進一步增長,到2035年前,天然氣日產量將在5年內翻一番,達到210萬桶油當量。 根據估計的可采儲量、開發時間表和計劃,到2035年前,大陸架和陸地儲量將增加,占該地區預計400萬桶油當量/天天然氣總產量的46%左右。
由于蓬勃發展的生產前景,綠地投資預計也將飆升。 去年,非洲地區天然氣和液體未開發地區的資本支出總額為120億美元,其中80億美元用于深水開發。 到2030年前,總綠地投資將飆升至近400億美元,其中240億美元將用于深水項目。
未來幾年,撒哈拉以南非洲地區的產量預計將大幅增加,特別是天然氣產量將大幅增加。 盡管在陸上已經獲得了一些顯著的發現,但深水海上資源的開發將為非洲地區帶來一個快速增長的時期。
撒哈拉以南非洲地區的天然氣產量一直處于歷史最低水平,但由于莫桑比克、南非和毛里塔尼亞等國存在大量未開發的深水氣田,這一狀況有望改變。法國道達爾能源公司位于莫桑比克的Area 4 LNG項目的深水油藏預計擁有23億桶油當量的天然氣儲量,其中1號生產線和2號生產線預計將于2028年投產。 南非Brulpadda油田的儲量為7.15億桶油當量,而英國石油公司運營的橫跨毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾海上邊界的Greater Tortue Ahmeyim浮式液化天然氣(FLNG)的儲量估計為3億桶油當量。
目前撒哈拉以南非洲地區的潛在可采儲量中,約60%位于深水區,其中近60%為天然氣。 莫桑比克擁有該地區52%的可采天然氣資源,其次是塞內加爾-毛里塔尼亞海域,合計20%,坦桑尼亞約12%。 尼日利亞還擁有大量可采天然氣儲量,這將有助于預期產量的增長。
另一方面,撒哈拉以南非洲地區的石油日產量預計將在20多年來首次降至400萬桶以下,但將在2028年恢復,并在2020年恢復到440萬桶左右的水平。 液體日產量預計也將在21世紀30年代增長,到2035年的總產量約為500萬桶。
非洲地區可開采的深水資源中,液體資源約占40%,其中尼日利亞占33%,安哥拉占31%。 加納和莫桑比克是另外兩個擁有大量未開發資源的國家,分別占該地區深水液體儲量的8%和7%。
然而,撒哈拉以南非洲地區的深水項目存在風險,由于開發成本高、融資困難、財政體制問題和其他地面風險,項目可能會被推遲或不被批準。 由于各大石油公司繼續控制上游支出,并推進能源轉型,以幫助降低排放,許多深水項目在起步階段將面臨挑戰。
總體而言,大型深水項目主要致力于降低上游成本、減少排放、增加可再生能源和能源轉型,這意味著在投資分配方面,此類深水項目往往不得不退居二線。 歐洲銀行正在收緊為高排放碳氫化合物項目融資的規定,而非洲銀行可能難以提供必要的融資。
李峻 編譯自 美國油價網
原文如下:
Africa To See Gas Supply Boom Through 2030
· Sub-Sahara Africa is expected to see gas output rise to to 2.7 million boepd in 2030.
· As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising.
· Significant undeveloped deepwater finds in countries including Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritania could become the main drivers for growth.
Untapped natural gas supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa are set to be unleashed this decade, with output more than doubling from 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2021 to 2.7 million boepd in 2030 due to vast undeveloped deepwater resources, Rystad Energy research shows.
While deepwater developments have played a crucial role in the region’s liquids output to date, averaging about 50% of annual production, gas output from such fields has been minimal. That is expected to change, however, as gas from deepwater reserves will surge in the coming years. Production from deepwater developments will skyrocket from 120,000 boepd in 2021, 9% of total output including shelf and land production, to 1 million boepd accounting for 38% of total output.
As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising. Deepwater production is projected to grow further in the 2030s, with gas output more than doubling in five years to 2.1 million boepd by 2035. Gas from shelf and land reserves will increase by 2035 and will contribute about 46% of the expected 4 million boepd of total gas output from the region, based on estimated recoverable reserves, development timelines and plans.
As a result of the booming production outlook, greenfield investments are also projected to soar. Gas and liquids greenfield capital expenditure in the region totaled $12 billion in 2021, with $8 billion spent on deepwater developments. By 2030, total greenfield investments will surge to almost $40 billion, of which $24 billion will go on deepwater projects.
“Production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with natural gas output in particular set to see a boom in output. Although there have been notable onshore finds, the development of deepwater offshore resources is going to usher in a period of rapid growth for the region,” says Siva Prasad, senior upstream analyst with Rystad Energy.
Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been historically low, but that looks set to change due to significant undeveloped deepwater finds in countries including Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritania. Deepwater reservoirs tagged to TotalEnergies’ Area 4 LNG project in Mozambique, where trains 1 and 2 are expected to start production in 2028, hold an estimated 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in gas reserves. South Africa’s Brulpadda field – also operated by the French major – holds 715 million boe, while the BP-operated Greater Tortue Ahmeyim floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) development straddling the maritime boundary of Mauritania and Senegal has an estimated 300 million boe.
Of the current potential recoverable reserves across Sub-Saharan Africa, about 60% lie in deepwater regions, of which close to 60% is gas. Mozambique dominates with 52% of the total recoverable gas resources in the area, followed by the Senegal–Mauritania maritime region with a combined 20% and Tanzania with about 12%. Nigeria also holds significant recoverable reserves of gas that will contribute to the expected output hike.
On the flip side, Sub-Saharan African liquids production is expected to drop below 4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in more than 20 years but will recover by 2028 and return to 2020 levels of around 4.4 million bpd by the end of the decade. Liquids output is projected to grow in the 2030s, too, with total production of approximately 5 million bpd in 2035.
about 40% of the total recoverable deepwater resources in the region are liquids, of which Nigeria accounts for 33% and Angola has 31%. Ghana and Mozambique are two other countries with significant untapped resources, amounting to 8% and 7%, respectively, of the region’s deepwater liquids reserves.
Deepwater projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are, however, risky and can be delayed or unsanctioned due to high development costs, challenges accessing financing, issues with fiscal regimes and other above-ground risks. With majors continuing to rein in upstream spending and plow a course on the energy transition to help lower emissions, many deepwater schemes will face challenges getting off the drawing board.
Majors are, overall, focused on cutting upstream costs, reducing emissions, increasing renewables and the energy transition, meaning such deepwater projects often have to take a backseat when it comes to apportioning investment. European banks are tightening regulations for funding high-emission hydrocarbon projects, and African banks could struggle to provide the necessary financing.
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