據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)8月10日報道， 日前，美國能源信息署(EIA)在一份月度報告中表示，預(yù)計2021年美國原油日產(chǎn)量將減少16萬桶，至1112萬桶，降幅小于此前預(yù)測的21萬桶。

　　油價已經(jīng)從去年的歷史低點反彈，促使一些美國生產(chǎn)商增加鉆探活動。自去年8月降至歷史最低水平以來，美國的鉆機總數(shù)已經(jīng)增加了一倍多。

　　EIA表示，預(yù)計10月份產(chǎn)量將相對持平，然后11月和12月以及整個2022年上升。

　　2022年，美國原油日均產(chǎn)量預(yù)計約為1180萬桶，增長65萬桶，低于此前預(yù)測的75萬桶。

　　2019年，在新冠疫情摧毀需求和價格之前，日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到1230萬桶的歷史新高。

　　該機構(gòu)表示，預(yù)計2021年美國石油和其他液體燃料日消耗量將增加158萬桶，達(dá)到1970萬桶，而此前的預(yù)測為增加152萬桶。

　　據(jù)EIA稱，2021年上半年美國汽油日均消耗量為860萬桶，高于2020年下半年的830萬桶，但低于2019年下半年的930萬桶。根據(jù)我們最新的估計顯示，5-7月的汽油消費量高于我們之前的預(yù)期。就業(yè)增長和流動性增加導(dǎo)致2021年迄今汽油消費量上升。

　　預(yù)計2021年全年全球石油和液體燃料日均消費量為9760萬桶，較2020年增加530萬桶。

　　EIA預(yù)測，2022年，全球石油和液體燃料日均消費量將增加360萬桶，達(dá)到1.012億桶。

　　郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. crude output to fall less in 2021 than previously forecast

　　U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd.

　　Oil prices have rebounded from the historic lows seen last year, prompting some U.S. producers to boost drilling activity. The total U.S. rig count has more than doubled since falling to a record low in August last year.

　　The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before beginning to rise in November and December and throughout 2022.

　　For 2022, U.S. crude production is expected to average about 11.8 million bpd, a rise of 650,000 bpd, smaller than the previous forecast for a rise of 750,000 bpd.

　　Output hit an all-time annual high of 12.3 million bpd in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand and prices.

　　The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.58 million bpd to 19.70 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.52 million bpd.

　　U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 8.6 million bpd in the first half of 2021, up from 8.3 million bpd in the second half of 2020 but below the 9.3 million bpd in the second half of 2019, EIA said.

　　"Our latest estimates show that gasoline consumption in May through July was higher than we had previously expected. Growth in employment and increasing mobility have led to rising gasoline consumption so far in 2021," the agency said.

　　Globally, consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is forecast to average 97.6 million bpd for all of 2021, a 5.3 million bpd increase from 2020.

　　The EIA forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.6 million bpd in 2022 to average 101.2 million bpd.

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