據2021年6月21日今日石油網站消息，咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲最近就未來油氣勘探的相關性做了一項分析。目前，能源公司正面臨糾正自身行動、為能源轉型讓路的壓力。在這種情況下，分析人士早就得出結論，諸如圭亞那和蘇里南等能夠提供低成本、輕質原油的省份，最有可能在未來幾年實現回報最大化。
“石油和天然氣需求仍有可能持續幾年。在這種情況下，我們希望通過勘探找到新的資源，以彌補現有油田產量的逐年遞減。”該公司董事長、首席分析師西蒙·弗勞爾斯表示。
他說，石油公司在勘探上的投入要少得多。十年前，傳統勘探是投資組合更新和增長的核心。在2011-2015年，這些巨頭平均每年花費160億美元用于勘探和評估。2015年油價暴跌帶來的金融壓力和資本約束，嚴重打擊了勘探投資。在2020年負油價期間，勘探支出更是減少了三分之二，降至50億美元。
“這是我們首次開始看到石油巨頭們對勘探產生了不同程度的投入。能源轉型對投資的影響越來越大，戰略也出現了分歧。勘探仍是埃克森美孚、道達爾和埃尼的核心業務。相形之下，BP有最積極的計劃去碳業務。”弗勞爾斯指出。
2020年，英國石油公司將上游預算的6%用于勘探，而且可能會進一步縮減。該公司在大幅縮減上游業務方面仍在袖手觀望，因此勘探工作也受到了影響。他說:“這可能還需要幾年的時間，但最終，其他公司也會逐漸減少上游的勘探活動。”
與此同時，埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和道達爾(Total)等石油巨頭一直在加大對那些可以在較低盈虧平衡點上提供輕質原油的資產的投資。
在這方面，埃克森美孚在圭亞那海域的Stabroek區塊取得了重大成功，自2015年以來，該公司與合資企業Hess等合作，在那里發現了超過90億桶的儲量(boe)。該公司已經在麗薩油田第一階段開發中開始生產石油，第二階段計劃于2022年初投產，第三階段計劃于2024年在Payara油田進行開發。預計到2025年，Yellowtail將開始生產，日產量將超過80萬桶。
自2015年以來，圭亞那的探明資源總量排名第一，蘇里南取得了巨大的飛躍。
在蘇里南，道達爾和阿帕奇合作伙伴在58區塊發現了4個油田，預計到2025年將交付第一桶油。雷斯塔能源估計，目前已發現的儲量約為14億桶油當量，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，該區塊儲量可能超過65億桶。
到2030年，蘇里南的石油產量預計將達到65萬桶/天。
伍德麥肯茲表示，即使油價低至50美元，勘探仍是非常有利可圖的，特別是如果能專注于能夠迅速商業化的前景，則收益更大。
弗勞爾斯說表示：“挪國油的約翰斯維爾德魯普大油田(2010年)、埃尼的祖爾氣田(2015年)、埃克森美孚在圭亞那的多個深水石油發現(2015年)和道達爾在蘇里南的巨型發現(2019-2020年)迅速成為他們上游投資組合的王冠上的寶石。”
未來最大的吸引力在于深水，這里蘊藏著世界上大多數可開采的尚未發現的資源，以及具有創造物質價值潛力的巨大遠景構造。
曹海斌 編譯自?今日石油
原文如下：
Guyana, Suriname will eat up more deep water investments as majors double down
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Consultancy group Wood Mackenzie did a recent analysis on the relevance of future oil and gas exploration in a world where energy companies are being pressured to clean up their act and give way to the energy transition. Under these circumstances, analysts have long concluded that provinces capable of delivering low-cost, cleaner barrels such as Guyana and Suriname, are best positioned to maximise returns in the coming years.
“There is still a likelihood that oil and gas demand hold up for some years. In that case, we’ll want exploration to find new resource to offset the natural decline in production from existing fields,” says Simon Flowers, Chairman, Chief Analyst and author of The Edge at WoodMac.
He said the majors are spending a lot less on exploration. A decade ago, conventional exploration was central to portfolio renewal and growth. In 2011-2015, the Majors together spent an average of US$16 billion a year on exploration and appraisal. The collapse in oil prices in 2015 led to financial pressures and capital discipline that hit exploration hard. Spend shrank by two-thirds, dipping to just US$5 billion in the crisis of 2020.
“For the first time, we’re starting to see differing levels of commitment among the Majors. The energy transition is increasingly influencing investment, and strategies are diverging. Exploration is still core to ExxonMobil, Total and Eni. In contrast, BP has the most aggressive plans to decarbonise its business,” Flowers points out.
BP spent just 6% of its upstream budget on exploration in 2020 and may shrink it further. The company is an outlier in radically downsizing upstream, with exploration collateral damage. “It could be years away, but eventually others too will wind down upstream and with it, exploration,” he said.
In the meantime, majors such as ExxonMobil and Total have been doubling down on assets that promise to deliver lighter oil at lower breakevens. Exxon has had significant success in this regard at the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana where it has found over 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) since 2015 in partnership with co-venturers Hess. The company is already producing oil at the Liza Phase 1 Development with a second phase set to come onstream by early 2022 and a third development at the Payara field targeted for 2024. By 2025, production at Yellowtail is expected to commence, pushing output to over 800,000 bpd.
Guyana ranks first for total resources discovered since 2015, Suriname takes giant leap
In Suriname, Total and partner Apache have made 4 discoveries at Block 58 and are expected to deliver first oil by 2025. Rystad Energy estimates the discoveries made so far amount to around 1.4 billion boe and Morgan Stanley says the block could hold over 6.5 billion boe.
Suriname production expected to hit 650,000 bpd by 2030
WoodMac said exploration can still be very lucrative, even at US$50/bbl, particularly if concentrated on prospects that could be commercialised swiftly.
“There are also the game changers, reminders of what exploration can do, even for a Major,” Flowers said. “Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup (2010), Eni’s Zohr (2015), ExxonMobil’s multiple deepwater oil finds in Guyana (from 2015) and Total’s giant discoveries in Suriname (2019-2020) have quickly become the jewels in the crown of their upstream portfolios.”
The big attraction is deep water, home to most of the world’s accessible yet-to-find resource and the giant prospects with the potential to create material value.
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