據今日油價5月5日報道，全球第三大石油進口國印度是最近的新冠肺炎疫情熱點地區，該國每天新增病例的數量達到了創紀錄的水平，這一結果削弱了石油需求，并壓低了油價。

　　歐佩克+出于自身的需要，從供應方面干預了石油市場，在防止過剩石油庫存在市場完全復蘇前過度膨脹方面，取得了相對的成功，但印度激增的新冠肺炎病例阻止了油價更快地復蘇。

　　這給歐佩克+施加了更大的壓力，該組織被要求履職盡責以使石油行業達到市場預期。但毫無疑問，石油市場的趨勢正在發生變化。事實上，近幾個月來油價有所回升，絕大多數石油專家和分析師也認為這一趨勢將持續下去。

　　但問題不在于市場是否會好轉，問題是它會以多快的速度改善，復蘇將在哪里達到頂峰。

　　歐洲的出行限制給油價帶來了另一個未知因素。一個月前，歐洲延長了許多封鎖限制措施，推遲了油價的回升。現在，由于印度正處于疫情爆發以來最嚴重的時期，不過，歐洲正準備解除這些封鎖。歐盟官員提交了一份放寬27個國家夏季旅游限制的提案，這將增加對航空燃料的需求——這是原油需求的關鍵組成部分。

　　在美國，新冠肺炎病例也在減少，而接種疫苗的人數在增加。因此，包括紐約在內的美國幾個州正在放松出行限制，所有這些都將對原油價格產生深遠影響。

　　但這并不是說所有分析師都同意這些因素將對石油需求產生具體的某些影響，更不用說會將對油價產生什么具體的影響了。首先，國際能源署在4月14日上調了今年的石油需求展望。IEA估計，今年的石油需求將增加570萬桶/天，達到9670萬桶/天。此次上調的原因是該機構對兩個世界上最大的石油進口國的石油需求預測有所增加。

　　截至4月6日，EIA則預計今年全球石油需求為9770萬桶/天。與3月份布倫特原油價格接近65美元/桶相比，EIA認為布倫特原油價格不會有太大變動，預計2021年第二季度為65美元/桶，2021年下半年為61美元/桶，2022年甚至更糟，為60美元/桶。

　　就在一周前，Rystad Energy將4月份的石油需求調整為每日減少近60萬桶。5月份，該公司將其產量下調了91.4萬桶/天，理由是印度的需求問題無疑會導致新的庫存過剩危機。

　　但并非所有人都如此悲觀。高盛(Goldman Sachs)認為情況要樂觀得多，今年夏天油價將高達每桶80美元。油價前景樂觀的理由很簡單——需求量即將發生的變化，而這種變化是供給無法比擬的，絕不能被低估。

　　Rystad分析師Louise Dickson稱，無論印度是否陷入困境，從現在到6月底，石油需求仍將增加300萬桶/天。未來幾個月，油價應該會回到每桶70美元。

　　瑞銀認為，疫苗的推出對石油行業來說是一個重大利好消息。據分析師Giovanni Staunovo稱，隨著人們恢復正常活動和經濟業務的全面重新開放，石油需求將導致布倫特原油價格在下半年年升至75美元/桶。

　　穆迪對油價反彈的時機也持相當積極的看法，認為被壓抑的消費者需求將推動全球經濟復蘇。但中期開來，價格區間仍被限制在每桶65美元。穆迪認為，經濟復蘇將加速石油需求的反彈，直至今年底和明年年初。

　　雖然石油行業的前景可能仍是不確定的，但目前的趨勢可以肯定的是石油庫存有望下降，這是石油需求增加的跡象，而歐佩克+將繼續限制產量。以美國石油市場為例，商業原油庫存最終回落至5年同期平均水平4.93億桶。

　　印度的疫情爆發不會阻止油價回升，但它很可能會使復蘇放緩到今年下半年，甚至明年年初至年中。

　　真是這樣的話，歐佩克+成員國將需要很長一段時間來繼續限制產量，與此同時，需求也將慢慢恢復。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Will Oil Hit $80 This Summer?

　　India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, is the latest coronavirus hotspot. It has recently hit a record-breaking number of new daily coronavirus cases—a statistic that dented oil demand and pressured oil prices.

　　OPEC+, out of its own necessity, has intervened in the oil market on the supply side of the equation to offset the pandemic-depressed oil demand. And despite the group’s relative success at curbing oil production to prevent excess oil inventories from ballooning before the market fully recovers, India’s booming case counts have prevented oil prices from a quicker recovery.

　　This has put even more pressure on OPEC+ to perform to meet market expectations. But there is no doubt a shift in the momentum of the oil markets. Indeed, oil prices have recovered somewhat in recent months, and the overwhelming majority of oil experts and analysts think this trend will continue.

　　The question isn’t whether the market will improve. The question is how quickly will it improve, and where will that recovery peak.

　　Lockdowns in Europe add another unknown element into the oil price mix. A month ago, Europe renewed many of its lockdown restrictions, delaying the oil price recovery. But now, as India is in the midst of its worst COVID-19 surge since the pandemic began, Europe is getting ready to lift those lockdowns. EU officials have submitted this week a proposal to ease summer travel restrictions to its 27 nations. This will increase the demand for jet fuel—a critical component of crude demand.

　　In the United States, Covid-19 cases are also shrinking while the number of vaccinated grows. As a result, several U.S. states, including New York, are relaxing restrictions. All of this will have a profound effect on the price of crude oil.

　　But that’s not to say that all analysts agree on what this will do to oil demand, let alone what effect it will have on oil prices.

　　The IEA, for starters, revised up its oil demand outlook for this year on April 14. By its estimates, oil demand will now increase by 5.7 million bpd this year, reaching 96.7 million bpd. The reason for this upward revision was due to increases in the IEA’s oil demand forecast for the two largest oil importers in the world.

　　As of April 6, the EIA saw global oil demand at 97.7 million bpd this year. Compared to Brent prices that were near $65 per barrel in March, the EIA sees not much movement in the price of Brent, estimating $65/barrel in Q2 2021, $61 per barrel in H2 2021, and even worse--$60 per barrel in 2022.

　　Not even a week ago, Rystad Energy adjusted its oil demand for April down by almost 600,000 bpd. For the month of May, it revised it down by 914,000 bpd, citing India’s demand problems as a result of the pandemic—a situation that would no doubt result in a new inventory glut.

　　But not everyone is so pessimistic. Goldman Sachs sees things as much rosier, with oil reaching as much as $80 this summer. Its rationale for this positive outlook on oil prices is simple. “The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand—a change which supply cannot match—must not be understated.”

　　Rystad analyst Louise Dickson said that oil demand should still increase by 3 million bpd between now and the end of June, India troubles or no. According to her, oil prices should make their way back to $70 per barrel in the coming months.

　　UBS sees vaccine rollouts as a major positive for the oil industry. As people return to normal activities and businesses fully reopen, oil demand will cause Brent to increase to $75 per barrel in H2, according to analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

　　Moody’s has a rather positive view of the timing of an oil price rebound as well, citing pent-up consumer demand that will propel forward a global economic recovery. But their medium-term price range is still capped at $65 per barrel. Moody’s sees this economic recovery as hastening a rebound in oil demand through the end of this year and the beginning of next year.

　　The outlook may be uncertain, but the current trend is definitely one of drawing down oil stocks—a sign of increased oil demand while OPEC+ continues to restrict output. In the highly visible U.S. oil market, for example, commercial crude inventories have finally retreated back to the five-year average for this time of year at 493 million barrels.

　　India’s virus explosion will not prevent an oil price recovery. But it very likely that it will slow the recovery well into the second half of this year or even the beginning to middle of next year.

　　If that turns out to be the case, that’s a long time for OPEC+ members to continue their output restrictions while demand takes its sweet time recovering.

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