???? 據(jù)天然氣工業(yè)2月26日消息稱，咨詢公司W(wǎng)ood Mackenzie稱，隨著航運(yùn)業(yè)實(shí)施更嚴(yán)格的碳排放規(guī)定，以及替代燃料使用的攀升，未來30年全球?qū)σ允蜑榛A(chǔ)的船用燃料的需求將下降。
????聯(lián)合國國際海事組織(IMO)將于6月正式通過能效法規(guī)，目標(biāo)是到2030年將新船和現(xiàn)有船的碳足跡在2008年的水平上減少40%。
????到2050年，國際海事組織的目標(biāo)是在2008年的水平上減少50%的船舶溫室氣體排放。
????Wood Mackenzie首席分析師Iain Mowat對(duì)路透表示，采用即將出臺(tái)的能效規(guī)則將實(shí)現(xiàn)國際海事組織的2030年目標(biāo)，并在2030年導(dǎo)致全球船用燃料需求較目前下降約37萬桶/天。
????Mowat表示，即便如此，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年，全球海洋燃料消耗量仍將增長至590萬桶/天，目前估計(jì)全球海洋燃料消耗量略低于500萬桶/天。
????Wood Mackenzie周五在一份報(bào)告中表示，在海上燃料中使用液化天然氣可能限制航運(yùn)業(yè)碳排放的增長，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年將進(jìn)一步取代近70萬桶/天的燃油。
????Mowat說："我們預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，船用燃料市場(chǎng)的總規(guī)模將降至不到560萬桶/天，其中石油燃料市場(chǎng)的總規(guī)模不到360萬桶/天。"
????但Mowat表示，由于液化天然氣的碳含量相對(duì)于低碳替代品仍較高，在2040年后，由于零碳燃料(如綠色氫生產(chǎn)的甲醇和氨)變得更加普遍，對(duì)這種超冷燃料作為船運(yùn)燃料的需求增長也將放緩。
????他表示："要想實(shí)現(xiàn)國際海事組織將溫室氣體排放總量減半的目標(biāo)，到2050年必須向低碳和零碳燃料轉(zhuǎn)變。” 這將導(dǎo)致到2050年燃油需求進(jìn)一步下降90萬桶/天。
????曹海斌 摘譯自 天然氣工業(yè)
????原文如下：
????Emission cuts in shipping to cause drop in demand for fossil fuels
????Global demand for oil-based marine fuels is set to fall in the next three decades as stricter carbon emissions rules for the shipping industry kick in and alternative fuel use climbs, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
????The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to formally adopt energy efficiency regulations in June that aim to reduce the carbon footprint of new and existing ships by 40% by 2030 compared with 2008 levels.
????By 2050 the IMO aims to reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions from ships by 50% from 2008 levels.
????Adoption of the upcoming efficiency rules would achieve the IMO's 2030 target and cause a decline in global bunker fuel demand of around 370,000 bpd by 2030 compared to the current outlook, Iain Mowat, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.
????Even with these reductions, global consumption of marine fuels, currently estimated at just under 5 million bpd, is expected to grow to 5.9 million bpd by 2030, said Mowat.
????The use of LNG in marine fuels could limit the growth in carbon emissions from the shipping sector and is expected to further displace nearly 700,000 bpd of oil bunkers by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said in a report on Friday.
????"In our current outlook we have the overall size of the marine bunker market dropping to less than 5.6 MMbpd by 2050, of which oil bunkers accounts for less than 3.6 million bpd," said Mowat.
????But with LNG's carbon content still high relative to low-carbon alternatives, demand growth for the super-chilled fuel as a shipping fuel will also slow after 2040 as zero-carbon fuels, such as methanol and ammonia produced from green hydrogen, become more prevalent, said Mowat.
????"A major shift towards low- and zero-carbon fuels by 2050 is absolutely required to reach IMO's target to halve overall greenhouse gas emissions," he said, resulting in a further 900,000 bpd decline in oil bunker demand by 2050.
