據油價網4月27日消息，上世紀90年代末和本世紀初，埃及與國際伙伴合作，開始發展液化天然氣行業。這使得Idku和Damietta電廠的產能分別增至720萬噸/年和530萬噸/年。然而，由于國內需求強勁，原料氣的供應在一夜之間消失了，直到2012年，兩家液化天然氣工廠陷入停頓。埃及的命運在過去幾年里有了顯著的改善，Idku的重新啟動。現在，在幾乎9年的停頓后Damietta也開始重啟了。盡管出現了積極的跡象，但挑戰依然存在。

　　在過去十年中，埃及發現了幾處主要的海上天然氣資源，其中最大的是超大型佐爾(Zohr)氣田，這改善了埃及的能源前景。自2018年Zohr開始生產以來，Idku工廠一直在出口。此外，埃及Dolphinus Holding公司和以色列德雷克鉆井公司達成了一項具有里程碑意義的協議，并于2020年開始從以色列利維坦和塔瑪爾海上氣田進口更多天然氣。這筆交易價值195億美元，將在15年內購買850億立方米的天然氣。大部分天然氣通過Idku工廠出口到國際市場。

　　Damietta的重啟是埃及欲成為能源中心和出口國的又一重大成就。塞浦路斯還計劃通過海底管道將其近海油田的原料氣輸送到埃及的兩家液化廠。此外，還宣布了幾項投標，以擴大在地中海、紅海和西部沙漠的勘探活動，以進一步提高該國的國內生產能力。

　　但新冠疫情對埃及天然氣行業造成沉重打擊，嚴重影響出口。去年，Idku工廠的加工比前年減少了60%。不過，今年的初步數據要樂觀得多。Cedigaz報告稱，由于天然氣價格高于30美元/英熱單位，其出口量同比增長了3倍。受北亞冬季天氣、其它地區生產問題以及巴拿馬運河瓶頸等因素影響，現貨市場價格在冬季創下紀錄高位。

　　Damietta的重新啟動是高價格和強勁需求的影響。蘇運河大學(Sue Canal University)石油工程教授拉馬丹·阿布·阿拉表示，“作為天然氣出口中心，埃及將在該地區具有巨大的政治影響力，更不用說在疫情的影響下對經濟產生積極影響?！?/p>

　　埃及能否成功成為能源中心和主要出口國，取決于國內因素和國際市場。國內市場仍然消耗大量的天然氣，這再次意味著，由于需求的增長，該國在2025年后將無法出口液化天然氣。開羅仍在努力改革國內補貼制度。賈斯汀·達金表示，“當我們比較埃及為上游市場提供的投資條款，以及其下游國內市場和液化天然氣出口的價格時，存在一些分歧?！?/p>

　　此外，國際市場的價格可能會影響埃及出口的盈利能力，因為一些原料氣來自昂貴的深水油田，成本在5-7 美元/英熱單位之間。雷斯塔能源預計，埃及在滿足國內需求的同時，能夠出口一些過剩的天然氣，直到2024年。據雷斯塔能源高級分析師Pranav Joshi稱：“考慮到以色列向埃及的管道出口也從去年開始，將會有額外的天然氣來自塔瑪爾和利維坦氣田。但我們認為其出口潛力非常短暫，可能只有5年。”

　　開羅正致力于增加其在類似盆地和地質條件下的勘探成功率，以提高其出口潛力。此外，現有的Idku和Damietta設施也是重要資產。然而，挑戰是巨大的，并不能保證成功。

　　裘寅 編譯自 油價網

　　原文如下：

　　Egypt Restarts Major LNG Project On Rising Demand

　　in the late 90s of the previous century and early years of this century, Egypt in collaboration with international partners started the development of its LNG sector. This resulted in the Idku and Damietta plants with a capacity of 7.2 and 5.3 mtpa, respectively. However, the availability of feed gas evaporated overnight when domestic demand rose strongly until 2012 and the two LNG plants came to a standstill. Egypt’s fortunes have improved markedly the last couple of years resulting in Idku's restart. Now, also, Damietta has started working after almost nine years of inactivity. Despite the positive signs, challenges remain.

　　The discovery of several major offshore gas resources during the past decade, of which the supergiant Zohr gas field is the biggest, improved Egypt’s energy outlook. The Idku plant has been exporting since 2018 when production at Zohr started. Furthermore, Egyptian Dolphinus Holding and Israeli Delek Drilling struck a landmark agreement and started importing additional gas from Israel's Leviathan and Tamar offshore fields in 2020. The deal is worth an estimated $19.5 billion for the purchase of 85 bcm over 15 years. The majority of the gas is exported through the Idku plant to international markets.

　　The restart of the Damietta is another major achievement for Egypt which intends to become an energy hub and exporter. There are also plans to transport Cypriot feed gas from its offshore fields through subsea pipelines to the two Egyptian liquefaction plants. Furthermore, several bids were announced to expand exploration activities in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and the Western Desert to further increase the country’s domestic production capacity.

　　However, the Covid-19 pandemic dealt a heavy blow to Egypt’s gas industry which strongly affected exports. Last year, the Idku plant processed 60 percent less than the year before. The preliminary figures this year, however, are much rosier with Cedigaz reporting three times higher exports year on year due to prices above $30 MBtu. The spot market was hitting record prices in the winter due to a combination of winter weather in North Asia, production issues in other regions, and bottlenecks through the Panama Canal.

　　The restarting of Damietta is the effect of high prices and strong demand. According to Ramadan Abu al-Alaa, professor of petroleum engineering at Sue Canal University, "being a hub for gas exports, Egypt will have a great political weight in the region, not to mention positive economic impact amid the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic.

　　Whether Egypt succeeds in becoming an energy hub and major exporter, depends on domestic factors and international markets. The internal market still consumes vast amounts of gas which could, again, mean that the country won’t be able to export LNG somewhere after 2025 due to rising demand. Cairo is still grappling with the reform of the domestic subsidy system. According to Justin Dargin, “There is a bit of a divergence when we compare the investment terms that Egypt provides for its upstream market, and the prices for its downstream domestic market and LNG exports.”

　　Also, prices on the international market could impact the profitability of Egyptian exports as some of the feed gas comes from expensive deepwater fields which cost in the range of $5-7 MBtu. Rystad expects Egypt to meet domestic demand while exporting some surplus gas up until 2024. According to Pranav Joshi, a senior analyst at Rystad, "Considering that Israeli pipeline exports to Egypt also started last year, there will be extra gas from Tamar and Leviathan. But we are looking at the export potential to be very short-lived, maybe half-a-decade."

　　Cairo is aiming to increase its exploration successes in similar basins and geologies to improve its export potential. Also, the existing Idku and Damietta facilities are important assets. However, the challenges are significant and success is not guaranteed.

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